Oscar Predictions 2010

Welcome to my very first blog! I decided to rather than start off talking about a movie; I will the upcoming Academy Awards since it’s kind of a big deal in the film industry. Note/Disclaimer: All the opinions that will be stated are that of my own, so please don’t hate it is just my personal opinion, if you have a different opinion that is cool. Also, I have not seen all the movies I will be discussing, so I will be relying on the information I have looked up as far as awards each movie/actor/actress have received as my ideas for them, so yea.

As the 82^nd Academy Awards get closer (March 7^th) there have been a few noticeable changes within the nominations. For starters, the Academy has upped the nominations for Best Picture to 10, which I think is kind of an interesting move. While it does sort of defame the award by widening their range, it also gives them the chance to give other movies a chance that may have been both a box office draw and did well with critics as well. Now whether or not it will make a big impact this time around is unknown to me, I think they utilized the opportunity rather well. But rather than blabber on about the details, I think it is best we just dive right into the nominations

Ok, here we go:

I think I shall start with the technical categories first (editing, mixing, visuals, etc.). Now, I know the behemoth of a movie known as “Avatar” has gained much buzz since its release, but I am not too sure about its chances at the Oscars. While many are quick to note its won as much, possibly even more, awards than most other movies this year, many have failed to note exactly what awards they have been winning. Except for the Golden Globes (which are known to praise box office winners a lot), Avatar hasn’t really picked up any best picture wins in any other award ceremony, they have all been technical wins. That being said, I think Avatar will definitely be winning the visual effects, but it gets a little tricky from then on. I think box office and critical response may give it a little edge yes, but there are some interesting competitors in the other categories. For example, I think Hurt Locker may be a surprise win in cinematography for I really thought that was some strong work. In film and sound editing, sound mixing included, Avatar may have the edge, but I wouldn’t count Hurt Locker out or Star Trek for that matter (I think of Star Trek as the Dark Horse for those categories). I think Avatar and Hurt Locker will be an interesting battle come the awards ceremony.

Now we enter the art and music department, forgive me, but I may get a little hazy in my decisions here. Through the limited research I have done, art direction and makeup categories, they tend to favor the more “artsy” films (I never truly considered Pan’s Labyrinth artsy, but I can see what the Academy was thinking, until they didn’t give it Best Foreign Film, but I shan’t go ranting about that now). That being said, while I like Star Trek, I don’t like its chances in Makeup. I have not seen the other two, but I have hear stuff about Young Victoria and nothing of IL Divo, but from what I have seen of Young Victoria I think it will take it. As far as Art Direction, I think it will be a battle between Young Victoria or Nine, I think Nine has the advantage; Academy generally favors musicals a lot in this category. In music, I think UP will bring back the award that Disney once dominated in its glory years while Pixar has generally been shut out (unless your Monster INC. but that was for song, and I guess the Academy felt Randy Newman was pass due). As for Original Song, the only one I had heard was “The Weary Kind” in Crazy Heart (I came across it on YouTube one day). I think it definitely has a good chance to win, but with Randy Newman also competing against himself in yet another expanded field, you never know.

The animated category, to me, is quite obvious, whereas Documentary and Foreign Language may be a bit tricky. UP has been the determined winner the day it came out, it has the win. Sorry Fantastic Mr. Fox, while I haven’t seen you I am pretty sure you are good, but I don’t think even you can do something only the original Shrek did in 2001 or what Happy Feet did in 2006. While I will always be in for a good surprise, I am just not seeing it this year, despite the academy expanding even that category from 3 to 5. As for Documentary, the two that I think will be the contenders here will be The Cove and Food Inc. I have very little to go on here, but I have heard really good things about both, and I think both stand an equal chance of winning, but I may give a little edge towards Food Inc. because I heard more about it when it was in theaters while The Cove, though I was aware about it, I heard nothing about where it was or when it was in theaters. As for Foreign Language, I am always one to back up a good Spanish film, I had even heard of a really good Chilean film called The Maid which got great reviews and I saw the Mexican film Sin Nombre (Without a Name) which was some really powerful stuff. However, neither got nominated, and though Spanish films are very well represented with two nominees (Peru and Argentina), I think Germany has it this year. The White Ribbon has been winning numerous Foreign Film awards, as well as getting very good critical feedback, I think it is their award to lose just as much as it is Up’s award to lose in animation, we shall see.

Now for the writing categories, these to me are the really hard to choose between than most other categories. I mean when it comes to original, you have Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds and even UP as strong contenders. I am a huge fan of all three films and I believe each have the right to own this one. I think I have to give it to Tarantino on this one for as bloody as the Basterds was, one of the things I liked most about it was its dialogue, which was rather smart if you ask me. So for original screenplay, my hat’s off to the Basterds. Adapted screenplay is also a little tricky for such a diverse choice as well. While the original had war films or films involving war, animated film, and a Jewish family man, this category is a little more spread out. On one side we have a corporate man who lives his day to day life living terminal to terminal, losing track of what really matters in life. Another side there is a beaten, illiterate teen living on the streets of Harlem. In between, you have a school girl messing around with an older man, a messed up situation between the U.S. and Britain, and aliens being sent to internment camps. While I am a huge supporter of District 9, I think Up in the Air has this one, I personally enjoyed the dialogue between Clooney and his two leading ladies (Supporting Actress my behind), I quite enjoyed the scene in front of Lambert between Clooney and Kendrick, but I rather not spoil it. I think this will be an interesting race; I won’t be to upset if I am wrong in this category, but I will stand by my decisions all the same.

And Now for acting, these are pretty obvious ones if you have been following the awards season. While it pains me to say I haven’t seen most of these movies, I don’t think I will see them in time to give a good input, but I have seen bits of different performances and I have done a little information seeking so you can trust me right now on this. The supporting categories are all but locked up in my opinion. Monique’s performance in Precious has been hailed by many as not only a great performance, but also as the best female performance of the year, the statue is hers. If there is an upset it better be Anna Kendrick taking the statue cause I thought she was keeping up with Clooney and did an amazing job. As for the supporting actor, Christoph Waltz owns it hands down. if you need proof watch the opening scene of Inglorious Basterds and you will see why, the guy is amazing. Tarantino said Waltz gave him his movie back; he did that and then some with his performance. As for the leads, while I am not a fan of her, I have heard nothing but good things about Sandra Bullock’s performance to the point where I am now actually interested in seeing it, I think she will beat out her competition (sorry Meryl Streep, may your 17^th nomination will bring you better luck). As for acting, as much as I think Morgan Freeman does a good job being Nelson Mandela or George Clooney does as a corporate worker with little insight of the world around him, Colin Firth also did a good job in A Single Man, I think Jeff Bridges will finally take down the statue after 4 swings and misses (the dude shan’t abide to a loss this time). I have seen only trailers of Crazy Heart, but I think Bridges has done well this year and will earn himself the statue. I would like to give special recognition to Jeremy Renner, out of the 5 he is my personal favorite as far as the acting goes, though I don’t think it is his year. However, I will not be surprised if we hear his name brought up again in the future.

Now for Directing, which has been given the title of “Battle of Ex-spouses” (no one has really called it that directly, but that is really what they play it up to be). James Cameron (Avatar), and Kathryn Bigelow (Hurt Locker), were once married, but they aren’t anymore, but they are competing against each other for Directing. They are both cool about it though, it is just media doing what they can to stir tension into it (shocker, right). Anyways, Bigelow is just the fourth woman to be nominated, and Daniels only the second African American (the other being John Singleton for Boyz in the Hood), then you got Reitman for Up in the Air and Tarantino for his Basterds. Again, I would love to see Tarantino dominate the evening, but I doubt such an event will occur. I think Bigelow will definitely take it down, and hopefully end the shocking idea of women being nominated for Best Director at the Oscars, they have just as much reason to be nominated as men, gender shouldn’t be taken into account when it comes to awards, race neither. That, plus she did one hell of a job with the Hurt Locker, the award is hers.

And now for Best Picture, but first I wish to take a look at the nominees. While I do agree with most of these, some of the a little shocking, I was a little surprised 3 movies did not get nominated (well more so 2, the other one I kind of expected it not to get nominated, but it would be cool to see it be nominated). I thought Star Trek and Invictus had just as much a chance to be nominated as District 9 and UP had (shows what I know, right). Hangover was a bit of a long shot to be nominated, but I was kind of hopeful for it. The Basterds had their ticket since they got nominated at the globes for Best Picture: Drama (not an easy thing to do with what that kind of film). Blind Side was a bit surprising, but I am warming up to the decision now, so kudos to it. I have not heard enough about An Education or A Serious Man to talk about them, but kudos as well to them for the nominations (I have heard good things about Carey Mulligan’s performance though, so congrats to her as well). I am happy to see District 9 being nominated, it shows Sci-Fi has something going for them now in the big categories (Here is looking at you, Children of Men). This finally brings me down to the two front runners, Avatar and the Hurt Locker. While Avatar boasts a Golden Globe win for best picture, Hangover does as well so I don’t know so much about the Globes. I saw it as well, and I am a guy who goes for story first then visuals will follow, and once I get past Dances with Wolves/Pocahontas/Fern Gully references in the film (there are a few of them), the visuals are pretty great. However, as I said earlier, Avatar will do well in the effects categories, it won’t get Best Picture. Having seen Hurt Locker, it was intense, brilliant, amazing; I can just go on and on. Not very many films catch my interest in the way the Hurt Locker did, so I think it will be the big winner this evening.

I think this will be a very interesting awards ceremony for while I think Hurt Locker will be the big winner, it will be hard to determine who the clear cut winner as far as awards is. I think this will be a much divided night, something which doesn’t happen often (When Crash won back in 2005, it tied with 3 other films for most Oscars). Who knows what will truly happen, I guess we will just have to wait until March 7^th to find out. See you there

Reminder: All these opinions are my own, if you disagree that is your own personal opinion as well. I have not seen all films mentioned about, but I have done research beforehand, I am posting this now for I may not be able to watch all before the award ceremony.

Here is the Breakdown of my decisions (along with the other nominees). Winners have * next to them:

Best Picture	Best Director
Avatar The Blind Side District 9 An Education The Hurt Locker * Inglourious Basterds Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire A Serious Man Up Up in the Air	Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker * James Cameron – Avatar Lee Daniels – Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire Jason Reitman – Up in the Air Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds
Best Actor	Best Actress
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart as Bad Blake* George Clooney – Up in the Air as Ryan Bingham Colin Firth – A Single Man as George Falconer Morgan Freeman – Invictus as Nelson Mandela Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker as Sgt. William James	Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side as Leigh Anne Tuohy * Helen Mirren – The Last Station as Sofya Tolstoy Carey Mulligan – An Education as Jenny Miller Gabourey Sidibe – Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire as Clarieece "Precious" Jones Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia as Julia Child
Best Supporting Actor	Best Supporting Actress
Matt Damon – Invictus as François Pienaar Woody Harrelson – The Messenger as Capt. Tony Stone Christopher Plummer – The Last Station as Leo Tolstoy Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones as George Harvey Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds as Col. Hans Landa*	Penélope Cruz – Nine as Carla Albanese Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air as Alex Goran Maggie Gyllenhaal – Crazy Heart as Jean Craddock Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air as Natalie Keener Mo'Nique – Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire as Mary Lee Johnston*
Best Original Screenplay	Best Adapted Screenplay
The Hurt Locker – Mark Boal Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino * The Messenger – Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman A Serious Man – Joel Coen and Ethan Coen Up – Tom McCarthy, Bob Peterson and Pete Docter	District 9 – Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell from Alive in Joburg by Neill Blomkamp An Education – Nick Hornby from An Education by Lynn Barber In the Loop – Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Ianucci and Tony Roche from The Thick of It created by Armando Iannucci Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire – Geoffrey Fletcher from Push by Sapphire Up in the Air – Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner from Up in the Air by Walter Kirn*
Best Animated Feature	Best Foreign Language Film
Coraline – Henry Selick Fantastic Mr. Fox – Wes Anderson The Princess and the Frog – Ron Clements and John Musker The Secret of Kells – Tomm Moore Up – Pete Docter *	Ajami (Israel) in Arabic and Hebrew – Scandar Copti and Yaron Shani El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina) in Spanish – Juan José Campanella The Milk of Sorrow (Peru) in Spanish and Quechua – Claudia Llosa Un Prophète (France) in French, Corsican and Arabic – Jacques Audiard The White Ribbon (Germany) in German – Michael Haneke*
Best Documentary Feature		Best Documentary Short
Burma VJ – Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller The Cove – Nominees to be determined* Food, Inc. – Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein * The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers – Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith Which Way Home – Rebecca Cammisa		China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province – Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner – Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant – Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert Music by Prudence – Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett Rabbit à la Berlin – Bartosz Konopka and Anna Wydra
Best Live Action Short		Best Animated Short
The Door – Juanita Wilson and James Flynn Instead of Abracadabra – Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström Kavi – Gregg Helvey Miracle Fish – Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey The New Tenants – Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson		French Roast – Fabrice O. Joubert Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty – Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) – Javier Recio Gracia Logorama – Nicolas Schmerkin A Matter of Loaf and Death – Nick Park
Best Original Score		Best Original Song
Avatar – James Horner Fantastic Mr. Fox – Alexandre Desplat The Hurt Locker – Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders Sherlock Holmes – Hans Zimmer Up – Michael Giacchino *		"Almost There" from The Princess and the Frog – Randy Newman "Down in New Orleans" from The Princess and the Frog – Randy Newman "Loin de Paname" from Paris 36 – Reinhardt Wagner and Frank Thomas "Take it All" from Nine – Maury Yeston "Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart – Ryan Bingham and T-Bone Burnett *
Best Sound Editing		Best Sound Mixing
Avatar – Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle The Hurt Locker – Paul N.J. Ottosson Inglourious Basterds – Wylie Stateman Star Trek – Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin Up – Michael Silvers and Tom Myers		Avatar – Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson The Hurt Locker – Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett Inglourious Basterds – Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano Star Trek – Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson
Best Art Direction		Best Cinematography
Avatar – Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus – Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; Set Decoration: Caroline Smith Nine – Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim* Sherlock Holmes – Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer The Young Victoria – Art Direction: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Maggie Gray		Avatar – Mauro Fiore Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – Bruno Delbonnel The Hurt Locker – Barry Ackroyd * Inglourious Basterds – Robert Richardson The White Ribbon – Christian Berger
Best Makeup		Best Costume Design
Il Divo – Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano Star Trek – Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow The Young Victoria – Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore *		Bright Star – Janet Patterson Coco Before Chanel – Catherine Leterrier The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus – Monique Prudhomme Nine – Colleen Atwood The Young Victoria – Sandy Powell*
Best Film Editing		Best Visual Effects
Avatar – James Cameron, John Refoua and Stephen E. Rivkin District 9 – Julian Clarke The Hurt Locker – Chris Innis and Bob Murawski Inglourious Basterds – Sally Menke Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire – Joe Klotz		Avatar – Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones * District 9 – Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, and Matt Aitken Star Trek – Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton

Note: some are not marked because some of these categories I could not even give an educated guess due to insufficient information, or a split decision. Documentary is a tie because of a split decision.