Oscar Season: Jack's Predictions pt. 2

Welcome back, everyone. Today, for my Oscar predicting, I shall be looking at the nominees in the supporting categories of both actor and actress. That being said, here are the nominees:

Outstanding Supporting Actor:

-Christian Bale- The Fighter

-John Hawkes-Winter’s Bone

-Jeremy Renner-The Town

-Mark Ruffalo- The Kids are All Right

-Geoffery Rush- The King’s Speech

Initial Thoughts: This is probably my favorite category for two reasons: 1) I have seen all of these films, 2) This is a solid lineup in my book (Sorry Andrew Garfield, you were my number 6). I am ecstatic John Hawkes got nominated, this was well earned considering its from such a small film. The same can be said about Ruffalo, they are two of my favorites of the year. So was Jeremy Renner, who delivers some of the best lines in The Town (Sadly, this was the film’s sole nomination, so his chaces are slim).

Prediction: I would give it to any of those men, but they haven’t received as much awards attention as Rush or Bale. These are terrific performances, and all odds arelaced on Bale to win. However, I have been slowly gaining doubt, and there could be the possibility that Firth can overtake him. Granted, I think Bale has the showier performance, but if the King’s Speech gets the amount of love its expected to get, Rush might upset. It’s a tough choice, but I am giving it to Bale because he is beyond due and Rush has already won an Oscar for Shine back in 96. Still, I have my doubts, but its too hard to tell.

Outstanding Supporting Actress:

-Amy Adams- The Fighter

-Helena Bonham Carter- The King’s Speech

-Melissa Leo- The Fighter

-Hailee Steinfeld- True Grit

-Jacki Weaver- Animal Kingdom

Initial Thoughts: Glad to see Weaver get nominated, but I think it ends there, for I think this is one of those, “Man, good for her, maybe I should go check it out now.” Also great to see Carter in a more subdue role than we have seen before. Now, I might have mentioned that there is a potential for her film to sweep. Be that as it may, her chances of winning are probably a lot more slimmer and if she pulls the win, I think it’s a sure fired bet there will be a sweep. Not saying its bad, but I think its more of a three way race at this point.

Prediction: I, like many I assume, consider Steinfeld to be more of a lead in the film, but by putting her in this category, she has a better shot. While its considered to be Leo’s to lose, don’t be so sure it’s the safe bet. If there is a category filled with upsets, its this one (see Mira Sorvino or Marisa Tomei). That being said, her role seems more showier than Adams which might give her the edge. However, I really liked Adams’ performance, in fact her’s and Steinfeld’s were some of my favorite for the year. There is also the possibility that Adams’ and Leo might split (which is often the case for two people nominated for the same film), which may give Steinfeld the edge. Still, the safe money is on Leo, but don’t be surprised if I am wrong.

Come back tomorrow for my picks for Best Original Score and Best Documentary

Oscar Season: Jack's Predictions pt. 1

All right people, we have one week before the Oscars are presented, so I decided to countdown with my picks on whose going to win, or who I think will win, or maybe what I want to win (fingers crossed on the latter). Now, you may remember last year I did an all in one write up, man were my hands hurting after that. I decided to cut it down to a daily thing and present two categories that generally have some sort of relation. With that said, lets get the ball rolling with the writing categories

Original Screenplay Nominations:

-Another Year – Mike Leigh

-The Fighter – Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, and Eric Johnson

-Inception – Christopher Nolan

-The Kids Are All Right – Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg

-The King's Speech – David Seidler

Initial Thoughts: Well, no love for Black Swan, little surprised it got left out over the Fighter, which went through so many reworks and what not. As the Academy love Mike Leigh, it was obvious that, win or lose, he would nab a nomination (hence the lack of Black Swan).

Prediction: I would give it to Cholodenko and Blumberg in a heartbeat, their screenplay was magnificent and I really loved their dialogue. Needless to say though, this award is going to King’s Speech, the movie expected to sweep, so this is expected to win. I did love the King’s Speech and it’s totally deserving, but I am still pulling for that upset even if its almost as unlikely as the next category going to anyone other than who I am predicting

Adapted Screenplay Nominations:

-127 Hours – Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy from Between a Rock and a Hard Place by Aron Ralston

-The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin from The Accidental Billionaires by Ben Mezrich

-Toy Story 3 – Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, and Lee Unkrich; characters based on Toy Story and Toy Story 2

-True Grit – Ethan Coen and Joel Coen from True Grit by Charles Portis

-Winter's Bone – Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini from Winter's Bone by Daniel Woodrell

Initial Thoughts: Why is Toy Story 3 considered adapted? Because of the characters? Really? I don’t know, but I guess also that the Academy didn’t really consider The Town a contender, oh well on that one. Glad to see Winter’s Bone getting some love from the Academy, considering its one of the smallest films of the evening (in terms of budget and gross). Side note: 127 Hours was my favorite movie of the year, yes, and I am glad it’s nominated, but I think it is rather obvious why it’s a long shot in the “screenply,” still kudos.

Prediction: Aaron Sorkin won this award months ago when the film was released. Strong competition, especially from the Coens, but its Sorkin’s award to lose.

Check back tomorrow for my choices in the Supporting Actor and Actress categories…