Oscar-nomics: Predictions part 2

Howdy all, time for part two of my Oscar predictions. Fun part of this night, aside from the amazing splits we will be seeing in terms of wins (Im second guessing myself as I type), I am seeing a lot of wild card categories and sure things. We are in for one heck of night filled with “NO WAY!” and “WHERE DID THAT COME FROM” or my personal favorite, “HOLY S@#T” not that I say that often of course. So, off we are to the races for some more of my predictions:

Best Original Song: I actually just listened to Adele’s song to Skyfall just the other day (again, have been very bad at getting to the movies lately). It’s pretty good, not too familiar with her discography but I am aware of her musical prowess, and I don’t see the Academy overlooking her here, even if the night’s host, Seth McFarlane, is also nominated. It’s Adele vs. everyone else in this category.

Winner: Adele and Paul Epworth Skyfall from, well, Skyfall

Best Original Score: This one is fun because it can go a couple of ways. I am cutting Anna Karenina and Skyfall because the other’s are Best Picture contender’s, which generally takes it here. While John Williams is certainly loved by the Academy, I think they are good with having given him 5 Oscars already, doubtful they are giving him his 6^th this time around. Its between Argo and Life of Pie, which is kind of funny because this was originally going to be set up to be Argo’s consolation prize, but now its seeming to not be the case, but more on this later. I really am pulling for Alexadre Desplat to finally earn his much deserved gold, but the safe bet is Life of Pi, or I could have it backwards, but I am going to stick with it and say:

Winner: Life of Pie

Best Foreign Film: A slam dunk, and beyond it being the only one nominated in other categories (one of them being Best Picture), its well loved and right up the voters alley for those who generally vote in this category (generic but astute stereotype for this category if you ask me).

Winner: Amour

Best Animated Feature: Another fun one! Anyone truly stands a chance, though I would put Pirates in the backseat since it came out so long ago, and Paranorman cause stop motion generally doesn’t get much love. Frankenweenie should fall under that category as well, but Tim Burton does carry some weight and it would be fun to see him win, and he just might. However, it feels as though its between Brave and Wreck it Ralph. Pixar is generally the darling of the category, but I have a feeling Brave might be this years Cars, liked but not loved (I don’t know, but I’m sure its lovely, Wreck it as well). I am giving it to Wreck it Ralph because its looking like it has what it takes to bring down Pixar this year, but it’s pretty close.

Winner: Wreck it Ralph

Original Screenplay: All over the place, each have a strong shot at a win. Flight is out because it only has one other nomination, though I am ecstatic to see it here (would’ve loved to see it in either editing or Cinematography, yes I saw this one, I highly recommend it). Moonrise Kingdom is also out because it’s the films sole nomination (which is a tad depressing, but what can you do?). Zero Dark Thirty has a real shot at winning this, but I am having a feeling its going to come up just short of the other two. Django Unchained is looking poised to pull a win, being Quentin Tarantinos second Oscar, but I am going with Michael Haneke for Amour, this one I am basing on a hunch, I could be dead wrong, but I am sticking with Haneke

Winner: Amour

Best Adapted Screenplay: Also all over the place, but I think this is well positioned for Argo. While they do favor writer-directors, I don’t think tonights going to be the night for David O. Russell, though if there is a well positioned spoiler, its him. I think Life of Pi is a creative achievement, not so much a writing achievement, its probably taking up the rear. Beasts of the Southern Wild would be an inspired choice, but it doesn’t quite have the backing to truly go anywhere beyond the little film that almost could. Tony Kushner is a winner we’d come to expect with this category, and in another year he’d be my pick for sure. However, Argo has been taking the writing awards to the point where it’s the one to beat, and I don’t think it will stumble.

Winner:  Argo

What a fun night Saturday will be, some locks, some unknowns, this is the Oscar show to watch for the first time in a long time. Seth McFarlane is going to have a fun night with this, and while I am not the biggest fan of his work, I think he’s the man for the job and will do a fine job at that. We shall see Sunday, for now check back for the rest of my predictions….

Oscar-nomics: Best Foreign Language Feature

Or

As was the case with Documentary, I have been unable to catch any of these cause they are generally in very limited release at this time. That being said, there is a rule towards voting in this category: In order for your vote to be considered, you must go to each of the Academy's screenings of the films to be able to vote. This narrows the field of voters to those who have time to do this, which generally means its the older members who are generally voting in this category. While there have been rules instated to avoid a rather rude snub of critically acclaimed films, foreign films that have won in this category have generally been safer films, so front-runner A Separation is actually in a weaker position than one might have originally thought. Even though it did receive a writing nomination, unless those writers see the other screenings then their votes are for naught. While I would predict this one in a heartbeat, I am placing it as my runner up so that if I am wrong, I'd be happy rather than guessing it, getting it wrong and be sad. That being said, here are the nominees:

Bullhead (Belgium): Michaël R. Roskam
Footnote (Israel):  Joseph Cedar
In Darkness (Poland): Agnieszka Holland
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada): Philippe Falardeau
A Separation (Iran): Asghar Farhadi

Generally, the more reserved, less out there films are the ones that get the gold, and from what I have seen of Bullhead, I don't think its right up the voter's alley, so I think it is a longshot. Footnote has a decent shot at winning, but tragicomedies, or comedies in general, don't often find much love here in terms of wins. That being said, with A Separation being my runner up, its between Monsieur Lazhar and In Darkness for the win, in my opinion. In Darkness, tells the tale of escaped Jewish men and women during the Nazi regime through the sewer systems in Poland. The other, Monsieur Lazhar, tells the story of a classroom in which a teacher, who happens to be an alien from Algeria, comes in and shakes up the educational system. The safe money would be on In Darkness, but I think the length (2 hours and 24 minutes), might hurt its chances. I am going out on a limb for Monsieur Lazhar, because I think its a rich story and personally I see it as the only one that could really take out A Separation. Again, I am convinced that A Separation has the Oscar almost locked, this is more of a devil's advocate in case my theory is true about the voters and their thoughts of such diverse and challenging films as A Separation. I will claim a half point if it does win, yet another category I am hoping my prediction is wrong, we shall see.

Winner: Monsieur Lazhar

Runner-Up: A Separation

Should Win: A Separation

Should Have Been Nominated: The Skin I Live In (on the basis that I was unable to truly catch any foreign films this year sadly)