Oscar-nomics: Overall Predictions pt. 1

First of all, my apologies for not doing my category by category predictions this year. Time got away from me and also I haven’t truly had a chance to catch many films (I have only seen 3/9 or the Best Pictures). Needless to say, this may be one of my favorite Oscar seasons in recent memory. Its certainly a relief considering I haven’t been this enthused about the race since the Hurt Locker won in 2009 (2011 was too easy and 2010 I was on the wrong end of the two man race that didn’t leave the best of tastes in my mouth). I can see any number of winners this year, but before we get to the big prizes, lets knock out the technical and craft categories (I will post my overall predictions with the other nominees after my commentary):

Best Sound

Yes, there is mixing and editing, but most of the times they go to the same film (I have an idea as to the difference, but its an educated guess at best). Very strong choices ranging from action shoot em ups, good to see you Skyfall, to the Best Picture love, theres love enough for Argo in both categories. I personally have Life of Pi being this years Hugo and taking the technical categories, but I am seeing a split here. Les Miserables is running on the “first musical performed live when filming” so I think its chances at Sound mixing are very real, so I am going with it. If not, then Life of Pi will ascert itself as the film to beat in the tech awards.

Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Best Sound Editing: Life of Pie

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pie or bust in this film, if there is one sure thing the film will win this night, its Visual effects.

Best Cinematography: I am a huge fan of Roger Deakins, should’ve won for any number of the Coens films, Fargo being my personal choice among any other film he has worked on, he is truly a master of the craft. However, like Emmanuel Lubezki (my personal favorite cinematographer) his name will always be overlooked for more showier work, and with that I go with Life of Pi to continue the “tech sweep” of sorts.

Best Shorts: Sorry, didn’t catch them this year, would love to though, but for now, your guess is as good as mine.

Best Costume Design, Makeup, and Production Design: This is where Life of Pi will halt its craft wins, mostly since its only in the latter of the three. However, these three are down to two films for each, but since one isn’t in  Makeup that one is more settled. Les Mis will take Makeup, unless the Academy looks for the “More is better” approach then it might still win (thank you Tom “close up camera shots” Hooper for that), but The Hobbit may pose a threat, but I doubt it. Les Miz would be considered a lock for the other two, but the close up shots from the director might hinder it. Anna Karenina is the one to beat for Costume Design, its precursor wins are a rather telling sign (that’s my answer and I am sticking with it, that and it seems flashier than Les Miz). Anna Karenina could also win Production Design, but I am going for Les Miz on this one.

Best Production Design: Les Miserables

Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Best Makeup: Les Miserables

All in all, I think Les Miz and Life of Pie will be the ones the Academy love, but for their tech and craft. In a year where we had many great films for differing reasons, it is such a hard time truly discerning a “Juggernaut” in this race. Every film up for the big award this night deserve some love, and most, if not all, will get some kind of support one way or another. Where will the others gather some love? Is history going to be made on Oscar night? I guess we will just have to wait and find out Sunday. For now, check back tomorrow for more of my predictions and thoughts of The Academy Awards.

Oscar-nomics: Best Makeup Predictions

 
Here we have yet another more is more category, as I've noted in the Best Costume Design Predictions. If you look at past winners in this category, it has often gone to the movie in which the Makeup has been quite distinguishable (Rick Baker, creator of many werewolves and such, has the most of these bad boys). This year, while there is a film whose makeup art is rather noticeable, there is a chance that we could see some competition to this theory. But first, here are the nominations:

Albert Nobbs: Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, and Matthew W. Mungle
While there is some impressive work on the transgender makeup and other makeup details, I think this is probably the weak link in the mix. I think this film is still in the mix, but don't count on this one to make a run against its other competitors.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows pt.2: Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, and Lisa Tomblin
This maybe your winner.  While there is some makeup designs we have seen in previous Harry Potter films, that still doesn't detract from the impressive designs the makeup team has delivered. Personally I think this one will win, because not only is it impressive, but the makeup designs is arguably the most noticeable of the bunch. Plus, with this being the last of a much beloved series that has so far been rudely unrewarded, this maybe the perfect time, even though it'd be an oddball category to do so. However, there is talk of a different option that could overtake it.

The Iron Lady: Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland
While most of the work seen in this film is subtle, there is something to be said about aging makeup. Its not as easy as one would think, but aging makeup is quite difficult in having the arduous task of keeping the makeup changes throughout the film subtle, but noticeable at the same time. This maybe why J. Edgar missed out, for its aging makeup was not as subtle as it should've been. That being said, this is being touted as the winner, but I am not truly feeling it. Last year, we had the same competition of age makeup vs extremely noticeable makeup with Barney's Version vs. the Wolfman, with the latter's noticeable makeup taking out the subtle aging makeup. Could this year be a change of pace. I am sticking with the noticeable makeup but don't be surprised if the Iron Lady takes it.

We shall see...

Will Win: Harry Potter
Runner-up: The Iron Lady

Should win: Harry Potter
Should've been nominated: Hugo