Oscar-nomics: Predictions part 2

Howdy all, time for part two of my Oscar predictions. Fun part of this night, aside from the amazing splits we will be seeing in terms of wins (Im second guessing myself as I type), I am seeing a lot of wild card categories and sure things. We are in for one heck of night filled with “NO WAY!” and “WHERE DID THAT COME FROM” or my personal favorite, “HOLY S@#T” not that I say that often of course. So, off we are to the races for some more of my predictions:

Best Original Song: I actually just listened to Adele’s song to Skyfall just the other day (again, have been very bad at getting to the movies lately). It’s pretty good, not too familiar with her discography but I am aware of her musical prowess, and I don’t see the Academy overlooking her here, even if the night’s host, Seth McFarlane, is also nominated. It’s Adele vs. everyone else in this category.

Winner: Adele and Paul Epworth Skyfall from, well, Skyfall

Best Original Score: This one is fun because it can go a couple of ways. I am cutting Anna Karenina and Skyfall because the other’s are Best Picture contender’s, which generally takes it here. While John Williams is certainly loved by the Academy, I think they are good with having given him 5 Oscars already, doubtful they are giving him his 6^th this time around. Its between Argo and Life of Pie, which is kind of funny because this was originally going to be set up to be Argo’s consolation prize, but now its seeming to not be the case, but more on this later. I really am pulling for Alexadre Desplat to finally earn his much deserved gold, but the safe bet is Life of Pi, or I could have it backwards, but I am going to stick with it and say:

Winner: Life of Pie

Best Foreign Film: A slam dunk, and beyond it being the only one nominated in other categories (one of them being Best Picture), its well loved and right up the voters alley for those who generally vote in this category (generic but astute stereotype for this category if you ask me).

Winner: Amour

Best Animated Feature: Another fun one! Anyone truly stands a chance, though I would put Pirates in the backseat since it came out so long ago, and Paranorman cause stop motion generally doesn’t get much love. Frankenweenie should fall under that category as well, but Tim Burton does carry some weight and it would be fun to see him win, and he just might. However, it feels as though its between Brave and Wreck it Ralph. Pixar is generally the darling of the category, but I have a feeling Brave might be this years Cars, liked but not loved (I don’t know, but I’m sure its lovely, Wreck it as well). I am giving it to Wreck it Ralph because its looking like it has what it takes to bring down Pixar this year, but it’s pretty close.

Winner: Wreck it Ralph

Original Screenplay: All over the place, each have a strong shot at a win. Flight is out because it only has one other nomination, though I am ecstatic to see it here (would’ve loved to see it in either editing or Cinematography, yes I saw this one, I highly recommend it). Moonrise Kingdom is also out because it’s the films sole nomination (which is a tad depressing, but what can you do?). Zero Dark Thirty has a real shot at winning this, but I am having a feeling its going to come up just short of the other two. Django Unchained is looking poised to pull a win, being Quentin Tarantinos second Oscar, but I am going with Michael Haneke for Amour, this one I am basing on a hunch, I could be dead wrong, but I am sticking with Haneke

Winner: Amour

Best Adapted Screenplay: Also all over the place, but I think this is well positioned for Argo. While they do favor writer-directors, I don’t think tonights going to be the night for David O. Russell, though if there is a well positioned spoiler, its him. I think Life of Pi is a creative achievement, not so much a writing achievement, its probably taking up the rear. Beasts of the Southern Wild would be an inspired choice, but it doesn’t quite have the backing to truly go anywhere beyond the little film that almost could. Tony Kushner is a winner we’d come to expect with this category, and in another year he’d be my pick for sure. However, Argo has been taking the writing awards to the point where it’s the one to beat, and I don’t think it will stumble.

Winner:  Argo

What a fun night Saturday will be, some locks, some unknowns, this is the Oscar show to watch for the first time in a long time. Seth McFarlane is going to have a fun night with this, and while I am not the biggest fan of his work, I think he’s the man for the job and will do a fine job at that. We shall see Sunday, for now check back for the rest of my predictions….

Oscar-nomics: Overall Predictions pt. 1

First of all, my apologies for not doing my category by category predictions this year. Time got away from me and also I haven’t truly had a chance to catch many films (I have only seen 3/9 or the Best Pictures). Needless to say, this may be one of my favorite Oscar seasons in recent memory. Its certainly a relief considering I haven’t been this enthused about the race since the Hurt Locker won in 2009 (2011 was too easy and 2010 I was on the wrong end of the two man race that didn’t leave the best of tastes in my mouth). I can see any number of winners this year, but before we get to the big prizes, lets knock out the technical and craft categories (I will post my overall predictions with the other nominees after my commentary):

Best Sound

Yes, there is mixing and editing, but most of the times they go to the same film (I have an idea as to the difference, but its an educated guess at best). Very strong choices ranging from action shoot em ups, good to see you Skyfall, to the Best Picture love, theres love enough for Argo in both categories. I personally have Life of Pi being this years Hugo and taking the technical categories, but I am seeing a split here. Les Miserables is running on the “first musical performed live when filming” so I think its chances at Sound mixing are very real, so I am going with it. If not, then Life of Pi will ascert itself as the film to beat in the tech awards.

Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Best Sound Editing: Life of Pie

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pie or bust in this film, if there is one sure thing the film will win this night, its Visual effects.

Best Cinematography: I am a huge fan of Roger Deakins, should’ve won for any number of the Coens films, Fargo being my personal choice among any other film he has worked on, he is truly a master of the craft. However, like Emmanuel Lubezki (my personal favorite cinematographer) his name will always be overlooked for more showier work, and with that I go with Life of Pi to continue the “tech sweep” of sorts.

Best Shorts: Sorry, didn’t catch them this year, would love to though, but for now, your guess is as good as mine.

Best Costume Design, Makeup, and Production Design: This is where Life of Pi will halt its craft wins, mostly since its only in the latter of the three. However, these three are down to two films for each, but since one isn’t in  Makeup that one is more settled. Les Mis will take Makeup, unless the Academy looks for the “More is better” approach then it might still win (thank you Tom “close up camera shots” Hooper for that), but The Hobbit may pose a threat, but I doubt it. Les Miz would be considered a lock for the other two, but the close up shots from the director might hinder it. Anna Karenina is the one to beat for Costume Design, its precursor wins are a rather telling sign (that’s my answer and I am sticking with it, that and it seems flashier than Les Miz). Anna Karenina could also win Production Design, but I am going for Les Miz on this one.

Best Production Design: Les Miserables

Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Best Makeup: Les Miserables

All in all, I think Les Miz and Life of Pie will be the ones the Academy love, but for their tech and craft. In a year where we had many great films for differing reasons, it is such a hard time truly discerning a “Juggernaut” in this race. Every film up for the big award this night deserve some love, and most, if not all, will get some kind of support one way or another. Where will the others gather some love? Is history going to be made on Oscar night? I guess we will just have to wait and find out Sunday. For now, check back tomorrow for more of my predictions and thoughts of The Academy Awards.