Oscar-nomics: Best Director Predictions

Now, here is a list I am happy about. Not one of these men aren't deserving of a nomination, and more so each of them have a strong reason to win here. I am a little surprised they didn't put Spielberg in this list. I knew he wasn't going to win, but still. If it were a perfect world and all of my picks made it in, we would've seen some love for either Steven Soderbergh (Contagion) or Steve McQueen (Shame), but beggars can't be choosers, right? That being said, this one has been pretty obvious for sometime now. I was hoping for a little more competition from what I thought was the better of the two, but the DGA destroyed those hopes. Still, at least this year we have a deserving winner rather than a Best Picture tag-along (*cough*Hooper*cough*). Here are the nominees:

Woody Allen: Midnight in Paris
I am thrilled to see Mr. Allen here, because I was worried his film might not have the momentum to carry through to this nomination. His direction was brave by letting the dialogue and characters tell the story at hand with the Art Direction and Costume Designs act as secondary aide. He kept things moving along and always gave each scene the right amount of time to gets us caught up in them each and every time without feeling too long. That being said, he doesn't stand a chance, his direction is too subtle and the film isn't really in position to make an upset. That being said, I am sure Mr. Allen will be content with a Best Original Screenplay win, that is if he even bothers to show up (dare to dream folks).

Michel Hazanavicius: The Artist
Now, this is what I consider to be one of the films strengths. Hazanavicius' direction is flawless, he brings life to each scene which requires a little help when our two leads aren't front and center. He makes the film what it is, bringing each scene to life with little more than the right scene decorations and cues to the actors. Hazanavicius is going to win this, and deservedly so (he may be my second favorite of the list). He won the Directors Guild and the film is poised to win Best Picture. It would be foolish to bet against this man when it comes to the win come Sunday.

Terrence Malick: The Tree of Life
First off: WOO!!! If you thought seeing Woody Allen making the list was thrilling, this made me ecstatic. I thought The Tree of Life was dead in the water, it was gaining no momentum at all in the awards circuit. And that was a shame, because Malick's direction is flawless and is not only deserving of a nomination, but also a win. Balancing the effects of the creation of time as well as the story of an urban family balancing such ideas with creationism is no easy feet. That being said, he is probably dead last in the rankings cause as I said earlier, he has gained little to no momentum towards an upset. The nomination is the reward here.

Alexander Payne: The Descendants
This, in my opinion, might be the weak link in the list. Not to diminish Payne's direction, its stellar work. I just didn't think it was truly a standout for the film. He definitely worked the cinematography to make Hawaii annoyingly beautiful, as well as extract the right amount of weight from each and every scene. Balancing tragedy and comedy is hard to do, but I would chalk that up to the screenplay than his direction (which he will probably win anyway). That being said, he won't win, I chalk this nomination towards love of the film as a whole and the love will probably work towards its Screenplay win, but no further.

Martin Scorcese: Hugo
This is hands down my favorite nominee, and the one I am pulling for the most to win. If there was one thing I loved most about Hugo, it was its direction, which I found to be flawless. Balancing each story-line, giving us a sense of wonder beyond the amazing visual as well as giving each scene its life and love, the direction is amazing. This is truly Scorsese's love letter to movies, and its arguably one of his best jobs as a director since Goodfellas, maybe even Raging Bull. He won the Golden Globe so there is a reason to suspect he could upset, and the 11 nominations clearly shows love for the film. If there is going to be an upset, its going to be Scorcese winning, and maybe a big night for Hugo all together (I am already reconsidering some of my earlier predictions).

That being said, I am sticking with the DGA and sticking with Hazanavicius. But hey, congratulations to everyone in this list. Great nominees all around...

Winner: Michel Hazanavicius The Artist
Runner-Up: Martin Scorcese Hugo


Should Win: Martin Scorcese Hugo
Should've Been Nominated: Steve McQueen Shame 

Oscar-nomics: Best Original Screenplay

In my opinion, original screenplay must be the harder of the two screenplays. I mean to adapt another person's material must be difficult, but to come up with new material entirely on your own,  just find that to be amazing. Needless to say, we get a lot of that with this batch of nominees. I am sad that the great 50/50 and Win Win, the little indie that could, were left off the list. That being said, there are some likes and dislikes with this list, but lets get into that later. Here are the nominees:

The Artist: Michel Hazanavicius
Now many are quick to call foul on this for not having a true screenplay, but I say otherwise. The true story written here is filled with such a design that it needn't have a screenplay, which is good since that is the films intention. Its a well appointed story with many great plot twists and suspense as well as humor that makes even the most jam-packed screenplays seem empty by comparison. That being said, it really is the acting, directing and editing that truly shine in this film, and the Academy generally go for witty and sharp humor/dialogue in a screenplay, so I think this will come up short. In the case of a sweep, which I am not buying into, it might have a chance at taking this, but for now runner-up it shall be.

Bridesmaids: Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo
Now, I might be in the minority, but I think this doesn't deserve to be here. While I found the film to be ok, I didn't see it as Oscar-ly and just saw it as a crude, very dark screenplay that I felt never truly resolved itself in the end. Now I am not surprised by the nomination, it was a long time coming, I was just hoping that the Academy would have gone for something less, well crude. I will take solace that this won't win for the fact that it has only one other nomination, for McCarthy. Again, I didn't hate the film, I just don't think its Academy material.

Margin Call: J.C. Chandor
I am extremely surprised by this nomination, it kind of came out of nowhere. It gained some Indie momentum, but not as much as Win Win or 50/50 for me to consider it in the mix. While I have yet to see the film, it does look like something the Academy might go for (a suspenseful business film filled with what must be some clever writing about the collapse of the stock exchange). That being said, it doesn't stand a chance. Not only is it the film's sole nomination, it has, as I said earlier, gained no momentum to even campaign an upset, the nomination is the reward.

Midnight in Paris: Woody Allen
This was arguably my favorite screenplay of the year. Not only is great with its 20's dialogue, but also meshing it with modern day dialogue is brilliant and effortless. It is also quite witty and rather sharp. My favorite sequences of the year was Corey Stoll's well written Hemingway (ANOTHER MAN ROBBED!!!). I am happy to say that, unless the Artist gets more love than I am predicting, this is your winner. Woody may hate awards, but awards love Woody. Everything is going his way and if he takes the Writer's Guild, which I am assuming he will, I think that will further assure the win (note: I know the Artist was ineligible and the nomination was a long time coming, but I just can't see it taking this one).

A Separation: Asghar Farhadi
I am a sucker for international films that tell a story that is not only unique in its own right, but also mixes in their nationality's culture as well (Y Tu Mama Tambien quickly comes to mind). That being said, A Separation is a welcomed surprise, I am happy it was able to get in while 50/50 and Win Win have not. While I have not seen it (yet), I have this on my list of most anticipated, so to see it in here clearly shows two things: A) the film is loved by the Academy and B) the screenplay is fantastic. I know B might sound like a bias opinion, but foreign films rarely crack through. Unless you are a world renowned Foreign director/writer (ie Pedro Almodovar), or you film is quite fantastic (ie Y Tu Mama Tambien/Cidade de Deus), foreign films generally never make it. That being said, unless your a big named foreign film writer, you equally almost never win. Still, good for Farhadi on getting the nomination, it is well earned.

Winner: Midnight in Paris
Runner-up: The Artist

Should Win: Midnight in Paris
Should've been Nominated: Win Win

Reason Why it Should Win:

 

(This is probably the only time I'm doing this, but I mean this gives us both great dialogue and strong acting)

 

Oscar-nomics: Directors Guild Nominations

So, the Directors Guild nominations came out today and let me tell you, I am thrilled by these nominations. I knew Hazanavicius and Payne were locks, and seeing Scorcese and Allen is great. The big surprise is probably my favorite in this entire awards season, and that is Mr. Fincher. Many are calling this a fluke, but I think he is truly deserving to be hear, heck maybe even win. It would be ironic if he wins this the year after dominating the awards season then lose the Director's Guild and then the Oscar. Tattoo has been mostly quiet on the awards front, so many saw it as a contender in the technical categories, but I think not. I think this might be your list come Oscar nominations, Fincher likely being in the weak spot for some one like Spielberg (War Horse) or Miller (Moneyball), we shall see what the cards hold for these men come the nominations. I could go on a rant about Terrance Malick's snub for Tree of Life, but hey at least Fincher was nominated so I ok with this list. Here is the list below:


Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
David Fincher for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Alexander Payne for The Descendants
Martin Scorsese for Hugo