Oscar-nomics: Overall Predictions

Here is a quick overview of my picks, I am sticking to guns on most of the categories I was originally in question. I see Hugo being the big runner-up of the night. Personally, I am so close to picking it over War Horse for sound, but I just can't do it. Same with Costume, but again I think its deserving win for Art Direction will be good enough for the film. Now, if Hugo takes Visual Effects, which is highly possible mind you, then it good be a big night for Hugo in the tech and artistic categories. This could, in turn, make War Horse the biggest loser of the night, which is a possibility as well. Foreign Language film and Cinematography are also up for grabs. I am picking Monsieur Lazhar but hoping A Separation takes it, personally. Don't be surprised if In Darkness takes it either, remember the voters in this category are generally older and they love war films (but who doesn't, right?). I am changing Best Documentary Short (the only shorts category I didn't see) because other predictors are swaying me into a different direction. I am switching to Saving Face because it resembles many past winners in this categories. It could be Cherry Blossom or Incident in New Baghdad, we shall see. Other than that, I stick by my decisions. Here is just a quick look at my picks, with my runner-up to keep track that if I am wrong, at least I was close. Here are my picks:


Best Picture: The Artist
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius The Artist
        Runner-Up: Martin Scorcese Hugo


Best Actor: Jean Dujardin The Artist
        Runner-Up: George Clooney The Descendants


Best Actress: Viola Davis The Help
        Runner-Up: Meryl Streep The Iron Lady


Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer Beginners
        Runner-Up: Kenneth Brannagh My Week with Marylin


Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer The Help
        Runner-Up: Berenice Bejo The Artist


Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
        Runner-Up: The Artist


Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
        Runner-Up: Moneyball


Best Film Editing: The Artist
        Runner-Up: Moneyball


Best Animated Feature: Rango
        Runner-Up: A Cat in Paris


Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
        Runner-Up: Hell and Back Again


Best Foreign Film: Monsieur Lazhar
        Runner-Up/Should Win: A Separation


Best Original Score: The Artist
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Original Song: "Man or Muppet" The Muppets
        Runner-Up: "Real in Rio" Rio


Best Art Direction: Hugo
        Runner-Up: The Artist


Best Sound Mixing: War Horse
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Sound Editing: War Horse
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Documentary Short: Saving Face
        Runner-Up: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom


Best Live Action Short: Raju
        Runner-Up: The Shore


Best Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
        Runner-Up: Wild Life


Best Cinematography: The Tree of Life
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Costume Design: Jane Eyre
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Makeup: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows pt. 2
        Runner-Up: The Iron Lady


Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
        Runner-Up: Hugo


I haven't fully decided on whether or not I will blog during the show or if I will just post my thoughts afterwards. For now, have fun and enjoy the show everyone...

Oscar-nomics: Best Picture Predictions

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So, here we are, Best Picture. After two years of expanding then changing the category to possible expansion (depending upon number of votes), guessing the nominations have become a bit more tougher. That isn't to say there are films that are front-runners long before the announcement, but to guess the other possibles have now come to be a bit harder to figure out. That being said the list is both intriguing, and infuriating at the same time. Now, while there is a presumed front-runner, the fun part now, with the expanded list, is guessing what films would've made the top five, or for that matter what ranking did they make in the list. That being said, lets break down the sure fire contenders from the pretenders:


1. The Big Three: As with every year, there are three categories that unless you are, at the very least, nominated in each of these categories, your chances of winning are limited. Chalk it up to widespread love, as long as they have Screenplay, Directing and Editing nominations, they stand a shot. Many will say acting is important too, but not as much (though it doesn't hurt). With that in mind, lets look at the nominations and who survive to the next round:
The Artist: Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (Y) 
The Descendants Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (Y)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Directing (N), Writing (N), Editing (N)
The Help: Directing (N), Writing (N) Editing (N) 
Hugo: Directing (Y), Writing (Y) Editing (Y) 
Midnight in Paris: Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (N) 
Moneyball: Directing (N), Writing (Y), Editing (Y) 
The Tree of Life: Directing (Y), Writing (N), Editing (N) 
War Horse: Directing (N), Writing (N), Editing (N)


All right, now that we have gone through the ranks, it seems The Artist, The Descendants and Hugo are the frontrunners, and though we already have a presumed winner, we go on to our next category:


2. Who fills out the list?: With three films already locks, what would've been #4 and #5 on the list? To me, the safe bet would be Moneyball, because despite lacking the Directing nomination, it received a lot more love many didn't think it had (it landed a sound nomination for crying our loud). I think the editing nomination is also a reason why I consider it a safer bet, can't be in the hunt without it. Could it pull an upset? Not a chance, at least compared to the top 3. Now the other spot? The easy answer would be Midnight in Paris, which landed 2/3 of the necessary nominations. Many would like to see The Help make the list, but I am not so sure. I was assuming it would at least land a Screenplay nomination. Even though the acting branch, which is where The Help received its other nominations, I don't think even they would be enough to make it. Extremely Loud came out of nowhere, but it only has one other nomination, so that is unlikely. Tree of Life probably would be polarizing enough that while it probably received its fair share of 1st place votes, it probably wouldn't rank any closer on other voter's list. War Horse was a presumed lock, but it lost much momentum as the season went on. The Best Picture nomination was going to happen under these rules, but if it were still 5? Not likely. Here is my thoughts on what would've made the top five (in alphabetical order):


-The Artist
-The Descendants
-Hugo
-Midnight in Paris
-Moneyball

Now, to the big question:

3. Who Wins?: While The Descendants received love with an editing nomination, it didn't receive any other technical nominations so I think the love is mostly skin deep. Now if we are talking about widespread love, look no further than the nomination leaders Hugo and The Artist. There are great claims as to why both should win, cause they really should. The only difference is Hugo got Sound nominations and The Artist received nominations (and likely at least one win) in acting. So, who gets the trophy? When in doubt, follow the guilds. The Artist can't be stopped, so I see Hugo as the night's big runner-up. That is, I am predicting it to win in some categories, it will probably rank second in all the other categories. This may prove to be vital in creating an upset, as the tech and artistic categories do have me flip flopping (except for score and art direction, I think those shall be split between the two). That being said, I see The Artist taking it, with Hugo close behind. So, with that I give you my power rankings:

Predicted Winner/Power Rankings:

1. The Artist

2. Hugo

3. The Descendants

4. Midnight in Paris

5. Moneyball

6. The Help

7. War Horse

8. The Tree of Life

9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

My Personal Choices/Power Rankings:

1. Hugo

2. The Tree of Life

3. Midnight in Paris

4. The Artist

5. Moneyball

6. The Descendants

7. The Help

8. War Horse

9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

(Note: I have yet to see the last two, I may have slipped War Horse ahead of The Help, but without having seen it, I can't make that call)

What Should Have Been Nominated (In no real order):

-Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

-Shame

-Contagion

-Beginners

Osar-nomics: Best Film Editing Predictions

This is one of my favorite categories, which is why I saved it for last (besides Best Picture). Not only is it integral to the whole process of film-making (what good is a film if its not put together properly), but it is also just as necessary in predicting the Best Picture. The last film to take Best Picture and not be nominated in this category was Ordinary People back in 1980. You also get some non-Best Picture nominees, but worthy candidates to show that not all of the Best Picture nominees were truly the year's best in this category (it also helps narrow down the list). We lost that the past years when they made a mandatory 10 Best Picture list, but this year with new rules, its great to see a non-Best Picture make it (even though I thought it would make the list). That being said, I like the list, even though my favorite, Contagion, was not nominated. That being said, lets take a look at the nominees:

The Artist Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
To be a Best Picture front-runner, you almost have to have a nomination in this category. I do think this is a worthy nomination, and likely win. The editing is seamless and it helps move the story along when music isn't there at its aide (the composer can only do so much). Whoever has won the ACE Eddie (Editing guild) has gone on to win this award. Though they have split the award between Comedy and Drama, if one of them were to win this year, it would be this one, since the other one was...

The Descendants Kevin Tent
Not to belittle his work, I just didn't find it all that impressive. I think this is a nominee that is a telling sign of the Academy's love for the film. I say this because not even Payne's Sideways made the cut a few years back.That being said, I don't think the editing is flashy enough to get the win. I think a win in this category means they really loved it, and I have serious doubts they loved it more than The Artist or Hugo.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
Now, this is a nomination I am extremely happy about. It is extremely difficult to make almost 3 hours of footage anything but long and tiresome, and the duo did it wonderfully. This also shows a level of respect for the duo, having scored their third nomination in a row (Curious Case of Benjamin Button and won for the Social Network). I think it any film should be able to upset, its this one, I am hoping for this one to win, but truth be told it might be in the 3rd spot overall. Mind you, its the kind of flashy editing that does well in this category. However, by not being a Best Picture nominee, its clearly at a disadvantage, and is clearly not as loved as The Artist and...

Hugo Thelma Schoonmaker
Talk about best Director-Editor in the business, she and Martin Scorcese have worked together for decades. She won for the Departed The Aviator and Raging Bull, so she is rather well respected in the editing community. Add in that her film is a beloved Best Picture nominee, whose film does have its flashy moments of editing. Whether its the hustle and bustle of the train station, the wondrous adventures in Paris, or the detail put in each scene of Mr. Scorcese's love of film-making and Goerges Melies. I'd put this as the most possible spoiler, because even though it is loved and flashy, I don't think its as loved as The Artist.

Moneyball Christopher Tellefsen
Another great choice, and possible player for the win. The smooth editing of each baseball game as well the whip smart dialogue (which is key for any Aaron Sorkin film) makes this a viable candidate. Add in the fact that its a Best Picture nominee, it stands a chance. That being said, I think it may be in the weakest spot (aside from Dragon Tattoo). The Academy's love for the film is clear with its 6 nominations, and its as flashy as Dragon Tattoo to be strongly considered a contender. However, I just see this film coming up short, probably ahead of Dragon Tattoo, maybe behind The Descendants out of sheer love for the former. I'm putting this one in the should win, because while I am backing Dragon Tattoo, I think of the two Moneyball is the safer bet of the two, but don't get me wrong these are two solid nominees I am talking about.

Winner: The Artist
Runner-Up: Hugo


Should Win: Moneyball
Should Have Been Nominated: Contagion


gee, I wonder what the next category will be???

Oscar-nomics: Best Actor Predictions

This is the category I take most umbrage with, and not because who is in it, the list is respectable, but who is not. I thought Michael Fassbender not only had the biggest breakout year by far but also the best performance in Shame. He threw himself into every scene he was given and gave each scene no less than his all, which he did flawlessly. I was worried he would be snubbed since he failed to land a SAG nomination, but I was hoping the Academy would overlook that mess up and let him in. Oh well, lets see who got in instead, here are the nominees:

Demián Bichir A Better Life
No offense to Mr. Bichir, this is a well earned nomination, but its his nomination I am most upset about. While I am sure his performance is strong, it had a very little release. This, to me is one of those "hmm, maybe I will finally go check out this film," kind of nominees that happen every once in a while (such as Jacki Weaver last year for Animal Kingdom). That being said, he hasn't the momentum or the mentioned release time to truly mount an upset, so the nomination is the reward.

George Clooney The Descendants
This is arguably one of my favorite George Clooney performances. Not only do we see him be the George Clooney we all know and love, we also see his emotional side as a father trying to handle family and business all during a tragic accident. He was long since to be considered your winner, but I am not so convinced now. Lately, there has been a shift in momentum towards a new sheriff in town. I think Mr. Clooney will fall just short of...

Jean Dujardin The Artist
I knew this nomination was coming from a mile away, but I never considered him the frontiersmen. Then I started thinking about it and it actually makes the most sense. Being in a silent film, he must be able to act out each and every scene with only his body movements not his voice, which is hard to do. Granted, it throws subtlety out the window, but after seeing Mr. Dujardin on the awards circuit, there isn't a single bit of subtlety in his bones, and that's actually a compliment. He is a very charismatic man, he is in a Best Picture front-runner, and in a way he does the most acting than all the others combined (and they have the luxury of verbal conversations). I think Dujardin will squeak out a win here, and deservedly so (I mean since Fassbender is out).

Brad Pitt Moneyball
Now, I am really happy for this nomination, and I was hoping he would get more love than he did. Many were playing this category (and to a lesser extent the Adapted Screenplay category) as a Pitt vs Clooney battle. I was pulling for Mr. Pitt because while his is the most subtle of the two but also the most impactful, in my opinion, on the scene at had (Clooney was already surrounded by the emotional context of the scene). Pitt worked the dialogue with intelligence and humor, allowing us to better understand the logic of the game as well as Mr. Billy Beane. I only wish he had gained more momentum to win, because the man deserves to very much. That being said, I think he has been stuck in the #3 spot right now, but hey I'm pulling for you man (and this is coming from a devout Cardinals fan).

Gary Oldman Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Now, if you want to talk about subtle performances, look no further than Mr. Oldman's performance. I personally felt his performance, as well as the film, was too subtle for their own good and the plot kind of got a little muddled because of it. Also, this being his first nomination, you can't help but wonder if the nomination is to say, "See, we have nominated the guy," because he has often been snubbed of an Oscar nomination. That being said, he has no chance of winning, he's not carrying a Best Picture nominee, he's had little award's season love and his performance isn't really much of a standout. The nomination is the reward.

And this was about as restrained as I can be in terms of holding back my hatred of the Academy for snubbing Mr. Fassbender, now if you'll excuse me, I am going to go and blow off some.... steam....

Winner: Jean Dujardin The Artist
Runner-Up: George Clooney The Descendants


Should Win: Brad Pitt Moneyball (but Jean Dujardin would be runner-up in this category)
Should've been Nominated: Michael Fassbender Shame

Oscar-nomics: Best Director Predictions

Now, here is a list I am happy about. Not one of these men aren't deserving of a nomination, and more so each of them have a strong reason to win here. I am a little surprised they didn't put Spielberg in this list. I knew he wasn't going to win, but still. If it were a perfect world and all of my picks made it in, we would've seen some love for either Steven Soderbergh (Contagion) or Steve McQueen (Shame), but beggars can't be choosers, right? That being said, this one has been pretty obvious for sometime now. I was hoping for a little more competition from what I thought was the better of the two, but the DGA destroyed those hopes. Still, at least this year we have a deserving winner rather than a Best Picture tag-along (*cough*Hooper*cough*). Here are the nominees:

Woody Allen: Midnight in Paris
I am thrilled to see Mr. Allen here, because I was worried his film might not have the momentum to carry through to this nomination. His direction was brave by letting the dialogue and characters tell the story at hand with the Art Direction and Costume Designs act as secondary aide. He kept things moving along and always gave each scene the right amount of time to gets us caught up in them each and every time without feeling too long. That being said, he doesn't stand a chance, his direction is too subtle and the film isn't really in position to make an upset. That being said, I am sure Mr. Allen will be content with a Best Original Screenplay win, that is if he even bothers to show up (dare to dream folks).

Michel Hazanavicius: The Artist
Now, this is what I consider to be one of the films strengths. Hazanavicius' direction is flawless, he brings life to each scene which requires a little help when our two leads aren't front and center. He makes the film what it is, bringing each scene to life with little more than the right scene decorations and cues to the actors. Hazanavicius is going to win this, and deservedly so (he may be my second favorite of the list). He won the Directors Guild and the film is poised to win Best Picture. It would be foolish to bet against this man when it comes to the win come Sunday.

Terrence Malick: The Tree of Life
First off: WOO!!! If you thought seeing Woody Allen making the list was thrilling, this made me ecstatic. I thought The Tree of Life was dead in the water, it was gaining no momentum at all in the awards circuit. And that was a shame, because Malick's direction is flawless and is not only deserving of a nomination, but also a win. Balancing the effects of the creation of time as well as the story of an urban family balancing such ideas with creationism is no easy feet. That being said, he is probably dead last in the rankings cause as I said earlier, he has gained little to no momentum towards an upset. The nomination is the reward here.

Alexander Payne: The Descendants
This, in my opinion, might be the weak link in the list. Not to diminish Payne's direction, its stellar work. I just didn't think it was truly a standout for the film. He definitely worked the cinematography to make Hawaii annoyingly beautiful, as well as extract the right amount of weight from each and every scene. Balancing tragedy and comedy is hard to do, but I would chalk that up to the screenplay than his direction (which he will probably win anyway). That being said, he won't win, I chalk this nomination towards love of the film as a whole and the love will probably work towards its Screenplay win, but no further.

Martin Scorcese: Hugo
This is hands down my favorite nominee, and the one I am pulling for the most to win. If there was one thing I loved most about Hugo, it was its direction, which I found to be flawless. Balancing each story-line, giving us a sense of wonder beyond the amazing visual as well as giving each scene its life and love, the direction is amazing. This is truly Scorsese's love letter to movies, and its arguably one of his best jobs as a director since Goodfellas, maybe even Raging Bull. He won the Golden Globe so there is a reason to suspect he could upset, and the 11 nominations clearly shows love for the film. If there is going to be an upset, its going to be Scorcese winning, and maybe a big night for Hugo all together (I am already reconsidering some of my earlier predictions).

That being said, I am sticking with the DGA and sticking with Hazanavicius. But hey, congratulations to everyone in this list. Great nominees all around...

Winner: Michel Hazanavicius The Artist
Runner-Up: Martin Scorcese Hugo


Should Win: Martin Scorcese Hugo
Should've Been Nominated: Steve McQueen Shame 

Oscar-nomics: Best Cinematography Predictions

Not going to lie, this is a nice list. My thoughts on snubs in this category are minimal in that I knew they didn't stand a chance (Sorry Shame). That being said, each of these films stand a very reasonable chance at winning. There is a clear frontrunner, but there is a looming feeling that an upset can happen in this category. If it were to happen, who takes it? Honestly, it is a rather stacked list, probably the most stacked of the other categories. Without Further adieu, here are our nominees, with my favorite shot to boot:

The Artist: Guillaume Schiffman
Black and White designed films often struggle to win here, but do generally get in for basic love of said design. However, when they are Best Picture nominees, such as Schindler's List, there a lock. There is definitely is a plausible chance this film will win here, there is definitely a love for the film and this win can be caught up in said love. That being said, however, I don't think it draws enough attention to itself than our other nominees to assure a win, but I'd keep an eye out for this one.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: Jeff Cronenweth
This is definitely one of my favorite nominations, and certainly is also deserving of the win. The cinematography definitely adds to the visual eeriness of the films subject matter and is certainly its own entity in the film. We get just the right amount of landscape shots that we get immersed in the scenes we are witnessing on the big screen. Personally, if there was any category I would give the film its win, it would be for this category. That being said, I doubt its chances against the other nominees, in another I'd see no problems with this taking it.

Hugo: Robert Richardson

Now if we want to talk about some pretty cinematography, look no further than Mr. Richardson's lovely work. He makes sure to fully engross us with every scene, to help further Scorcese's 3D ambitions, and he never skips a beat. Personally, I would have this as a runner-up (in terms of winning this year), but I wonder. There is word that the presumed frontrunner might come up short, and that the Academy might be looking for something different. While I am not predicting this to win, I am going to be on record that if there is to be a surprise win, its going to be this one. It might be my personal vendetta to ruin my prediction sheet by not picking this, but I am sticking to my guns with...

Tree of Life: Emmanuel Lubezki

When the trailer was released, there was already talk of this film being the one to beat. Since its release, if there is one thing this film has been praised almost universally about, its for the film's cinematography, and for good reason. It is a beautifully shot film and is executed perfectly. I was worried that this would be the films only nomination, since the film as a whole wasn't as universally loved. However, the film did gain a Best Picture nomination, so there is love for it. Also, this film is on a hotter than hot streak when it comes to awards season. I am worried however, because Mr. Lubezki's previous work, the wonderful Children of Men, wasn't able to translate such a hot streak into Oscar gold, but it didn't carry a Best Picture nomination. Mr. Lubezki is one of the best of the business and is certainly deserving of the award. I am staying behind this film, and thus ladies and gentlemen, I give you my predicted winner, here is hoping I'm right.

oooh, ahhh...

War Horse: Janusz Kamiński

When it comes to Oscar love, is hard not to think of Janusz Kamiński. His work on Saving Private Ryan was very strong, gritty work. Here in War Horse, he tries to replicate the same kind of work. While it doesn't quite match up, you do realize his ability to work what I call the "OOOH, AAAAH" angle of every shot he works on. I think this film definitely stands a chance because if there is one thing Academy members like, its going "OOOH, AAAH." I don't think it will win, but still, you never know...

Winner: Tree of Life
Runner-Up: Hugo

Should Win: Tree of Life
Should've been Nominated: Shame

Oscar-nomics: Best Original Screenplay

In my opinion, original screenplay must be the harder of the two screenplays. I mean to adapt another person's material must be difficult, but to come up with new material entirely on your own,  just find that to be amazing. Needless to say, we get a lot of that with this batch of nominees. I am sad that the great 50/50 and Win Win, the little indie that could, were left off the list. That being said, there are some likes and dislikes with this list, but lets get into that later. Here are the nominees:

The Artist: Michel Hazanavicius
Now many are quick to call foul on this for not having a true screenplay, but I say otherwise. The true story written here is filled with such a design that it needn't have a screenplay, which is good since that is the films intention. Its a well appointed story with many great plot twists and suspense as well as humor that makes even the most jam-packed screenplays seem empty by comparison. That being said, it really is the acting, directing and editing that truly shine in this film, and the Academy generally go for witty and sharp humor/dialogue in a screenplay, so I think this will come up short. In the case of a sweep, which I am not buying into, it might have a chance at taking this, but for now runner-up it shall be.

Bridesmaids: Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo
Now, I might be in the minority, but I think this doesn't deserve to be here. While I found the film to be ok, I didn't see it as Oscar-ly and just saw it as a crude, very dark screenplay that I felt never truly resolved itself in the end. Now I am not surprised by the nomination, it was a long time coming, I was just hoping that the Academy would have gone for something less, well crude. I will take solace that this won't win for the fact that it has only one other nomination, for McCarthy. Again, I didn't hate the film, I just don't think its Academy material.

Margin Call: J.C. Chandor
I am extremely surprised by this nomination, it kind of came out of nowhere. It gained some Indie momentum, but not as much as Win Win or 50/50 for me to consider it in the mix. While I have yet to see the film, it does look like something the Academy might go for (a suspenseful business film filled with what must be some clever writing about the collapse of the stock exchange). That being said, it doesn't stand a chance. Not only is it the film's sole nomination, it has, as I said earlier, gained no momentum to even campaign an upset, the nomination is the reward.

Midnight in Paris: Woody Allen
This was arguably my favorite screenplay of the year. Not only is great with its 20's dialogue, but also meshing it with modern day dialogue is brilliant and effortless. It is also quite witty and rather sharp. My favorite sequences of the year was Corey Stoll's well written Hemingway (ANOTHER MAN ROBBED!!!). I am happy to say that, unless the Artist gets more love than I am predicting, this is your winner. Woody may hate awards, but awards love Woody. Everything is going his way and if he takes the Writer's Guild, which I am assuming he will, I think that will further assure the win (note: I know the Artist was ineligible and the nomination was a long time coming, but I just can't see it taking this one).

A Separation: Asghar Farhadi
I am a sucker for international films that tell a story that is not only unique in its own right, but also mixes in their nationality's culture as well (Y Tu Mama Tambien quickly comes to mind). That being said, A Separation is a welcomed surprise, I am happy it was able to get in while 50/50 and Win Win have not. While I have not seen it (yet), I have this on my list of most anticipated, so to see it in here clearly shows two things: A) the film is loved by the Academy and B) the screenplay is fantastic. I know B might sound like a bias opinion, but foreign films rarely crack through. Unless you are a world renowned Foreign director/writer (ie Pedro Almodovar), or you film is quite fantastic (ie Y Tu Mama Tambien/Cidade de Deus), foreign films generally never make it. That being said, unless your a big named foreign film writer, you equally almost never win. Still, good for Farhadi on getting the nomination, it is well earned.

Winner: Midnight in Paris
Runner-up: The Artist

Should Win: Midnight in Paris
Should've been Nominated: Win Win

Reason Why it Should Win:

 

(This is probably the only time I'm doing this, but I mean this gives us both great dialogue and strong acting)

 

Oscar-nomics: Best Art Direction Predictions

 

While I am starting to second guess my thoughts on both Costume and Makeup, I am pretty confident in my choice for Best Art Direction. There are several things going for it, which I will go into when I talk about said films. The list overall, is pretty strong, definitely one of my favorites. Many are quick to say Tinker, Tailor was robbed, and I do think it deserves to be here. However, since my favorite made it in over it, I am willing to overlook it this one time. Here are the nominations:

The Artist: Laurence Bennett and Robert Gould

This is an obvious choice for a nomination, its got everything going for it. Pitch perfect period piece, a very well loved film and a best picture frontrunner. I did enjoy this film's art direction, it along with the costume an cinematography, gives us a vibrant picture of Hollywood during the silent era. As great as the art direction is, I don't think even being the frontrunner can help it topple the sure bet in this category.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows pt. 2: Stuart Craig and Stephanie McMillan

Fantasy films do often see some love in this category, musicals too. Pan's Labyrinth, LOTR Return of the King, Alice in Wonderland, all past winners and each carrying a fantastical tone with each of them. While this is a deserving nominee, its only the saga's 3rd nomination, which means the wizard community hasn't had much love in this category (at least not as much as it could/should've). I don't think this will end the winless streak the HP crew have been facing, at least not compared to another film nominated in this category.

Hugo: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo

Yet another film that will come up... nah just kidding this is your winner. A fantasy film with glorious Art Direction (one of my personal favorites) and a film that is obviously loved by the Academy. I had a feeling this would be a tech. and craft favorite, and I think that is how it will pan out. I am second guessing its chances in Costume, but for now this is the sure fire thing I believe it will win this category for sure.

Midnight in Paris:  Anne Seibel and Hélène Dubreuil 

A fantastic choice in my opinion, I was worried it wasn't going to make it. Honestly, this would probably be my favorite surprise of the year. Like I said in my review of the film, I am a sucker for 1920's, design and style. This is a perfect rendition of said period and it swerves effortlessly from then and now, which for it being Paris is no small feet. That being said, if there were to be an upset, it won't be from this film, more than likely the Artist cause it stands a better chance at a sweep than Paris does.

War Horse: Rick Carter and Lee Sandales 

Another respectable choice, period war drama with production designs as grandiose as its score and cinematography. The fact that it is a Best Picture nominee is meaningless, considering all but Harry Potter carries one, and I don't think this has what it takes to take it down. In fact, I have a sneaking suspicion that War Horse isn't as strong a contender in as many categories as I had originally thought. War films rarely win this category, so I am saying this is a sure no for this film. 

Winner: Hugo

Runner-Up: The Artist

Should Win: Hugo

Should've been Nominated: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Oscar-nomics: Supporting Actress Prediction

While I have had my complaints about most categories thus far, I am slightly less annoyed with this one (a little change of pace, less hate or at least an attempt on my part). There have been many strong female performances this year, one of which I thought stood out amongst the list. While I do think there was a major snub, the performance wasn't gaining momentum, so oh well. My major problem is right actress, wrong movie, and its pretty obvious when you think about it. I will go into this more later, but for now lets talk about the other nominees:

Bérénice Bejo: The Artist
I like this nomination, she does a great job in the film as a fan and possible love interest to Jean Dujardin in the film. Having had an already built rapport between the two and the director, her acting is quite fluid. She brings a level of charm and quirkiness to the role, while also being able to bring some emotional depth to the more dramatic scenes. She is the perfect match for Jean Dujardin, and is a strong contender, but has gained little momentum towards a win. It is possible that she could get picked up with a possible Artist Sweep, but for now I'm predicting she will be on the outside looking in.

Jessica Chastain: The Help
This is my favorite nominee, but not my favorite nomination. While I do feel she did fine work in The Help, she did even better work in the Tree of Life. I think that had she gained momentum for the latter film, she would've gained serious momentum for a win for a couple of reasons, many of which more than likely hurt her chances now. For starters, had she received a nomination for the Tree of Life, we would be seeing two films showcasing her range as an actress. She would also not need to worry about vote-splitting, which in this situation would hurt her more than Octavia Spencer for the same film. Since they share most of there screen time together, you already see the other actress' performance through their oscar nomination. So, with that in mind, this nomination puts her more in a severe disadvantage so while I want her to win, it is just not in the cards.

Melissa McCarthy: Bridesmaids
While I didn't care for the film all that much outside of McCarthy's performance, I don't think it was a nomination worthy performance. While we do see some true comedic chops, something you don't see enough of, I don't think this was something that should've gained awards attention. I think this was just a performance that was put in the right situation of awards momentum to get her pass to the Kodak. That being said, I really would put her in the bottom half of this list in terms of actually winning. The nomination is truly the award here.

Janet Mcteer: Albert Nobbs
This is something where I felt like she would be what I call "awards filler." Not to belittle her performance, she really dives into the skin of a transgender and truly makes the performance her own. The fact of the matter is that she has little to no chance on winning. While the film received a few other nominations, it was not a terribly well liked film and will more than likely end up empty-handed. Also, the performance has gained little momentum, like several other of her fellow nominees, so the nomination is the reward.


Indeed, no one has quite topped:















Octavia Spencer: The Help
Personally, I wouldn't have picked this performance as a winner, but its hard to bet against it at this point. She has won the Critic's Choice, Golden Globe and SAG so the Oscar is a forgone conclusion at this point. It is deserving, she shows a lot of range with this performance, showing true emotions in the tense scenes while also giving the show some comic relief moments. Its a deserving performance, not my first pick, but nonetheless ladies and gentlemen, I give you your Oscar winner here.



Will Win: Octavia Spencer The Help
Runner-up: Berenice Bejo The Artist

Should win: Jessica Chastain The Help (Even though it should be for Tree of Life)
Should've been nominated: Carey Mulligan Shame

Oscar-nomics: Best Original Score Prediction

This category is one I rarely get upset with, cause I am a sucker for a good musical score. Like the Social Network and Slumdog Millionaire or even the Bourne Ultimatum, Scores always work their ways and sometime can make or break a film for me. This years list of nominees are all strong, but I think that even though they won last year, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross' score for Dragon Tattoo I thought helped added to the level of intensity as well as creepiness Fincher tried to draw from both them and the cinematography. Also, I thought Alexandre Desplat's score for Tree of Life was amazing, but it was deemed ineligible. Oh well, lets take a look at the nominees shall we:

War Horse: John Williams

I find it a little astounding that this is his first nomination since Memoirs of a Geisha back in '06, but he makes up for it by being a double nominee. This nomination I saw coming from a mile away, it has everything the Academy looks for in a Score. It has a sense of grandeur, its powerful and it definitely adds to the scene at hand. Its a standout for sure, and probably would've won in another year. However the film, while a best picture contender, has not had the kind of momentum to really drive itself into winning many awards, and I see this film coming up short.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: Alberto Iglesias

Now talk about a nominee out of left field. Granted, I am thrilled to see it here, thriller/espionage films don't often get this kind of recognition, which is a shame. The score is rather terrific, its subtle in every scene, it plays well into said scene and it never overstays its welcome. Personally, I am glad this was able to sneak in, even if some other more awards established films that I liked were knocked off. Still, as great as it is to see it here, I consider it the longest of long-shots here. It hardly gathered any awards momentum and it isn't a Best Picture contender, so this is where the nomination is the reward, still kudos for that.

The Adventures of Tintin: John Williams

This is my personal favorite of the dual nominations of Mr. Williams. It, along with a little help from the brilliant sound team (which they themselves were rudely ignored) aided in providing us with a sense of wonder and amazement with every scene unfolding before us. Whether it was watching the fights unfold, traveling to far and distant lands, or simply enjoying a day out shopping, the music always added that little extra something that I frequently enjoyed. Still, as much as I enjoyed this I am afraid this also is not helped by not having a Best Picture nomination, or an Animated nomination either. In fact, being the only nomination of the film itself, I consider this film to be in last place, sadly. If the academy are wanting to award Williams for his work, which I still doubt will happen, it will likely go to War Horse instead. Still, another great score to see in this list.

Hugo: Howard Shore

Personally, this might be my favorite of the list. Its playful, energetic, always plays to the scene, but becomes sort of its own entity when it comes to the scene at hand. For example, this song I picked helps us explores the mind of the legendary Georges Melies through his films. I would pick this to win, and honestly with all of the things going for it the score definitely stands a shot. Unfortunately I see it coming up short come Oscar night to a score that, well, carried the film in some respects.

The Artist: Ludovic Bource

Now, hear me out about what I said. In the silent era, music in the film was crucial cause it spoke for the characters. It helped move the movie along and not give away what the film truly is: a silent film. Without the score, many would not want to watch a film solely based on the motions being shown on the screen. So, with that being said, Scores in silent films are crucial, and without Ludovic Bource's wonderful score, it wouldn't be what it is today. I enjoyed this film because of the Score (also for Dujardin and Hazanavicius's direction, but that's for another time). The Score is playful, yet also powerful. It plays to the scene, as any silent film score would, and definitely adds its own two cents to the scene. While I want to see Hugo win this, I think the Artist not only should win this, but needs to. If it doesn't, then we might be in for a train wreck of an evening for the film. I mean, truth be told, its really the story teller here. It helps us understand what the actors are trying to portray in the scene without a single word of dialogue, and it works on all levels. This is your winner.

Winner: The Artist
Runner-up: Hugo

Should Win: The Artist (for what it is to the film, I think it should win, even though I enjoyed Hugo's more)
Should've Been Nominated: Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Oscar-nomics: SAG Winners

Well, it certainly seems that the Help had a fun night. Not only did it take the Best Cast (and justifiably so), it also took the obvious Best Supporting Actress and less obvious Best Lead Actress, and I am thrilled about that. I liked the film ok, but Davis was my favorite part so to see her win was huge (a sign of things to come at the Oscars perhaps?). In the men's corner, one widely expected and one not so expected winners were chosen. Plummer has this, I am wary about Von Sydow, but this is really Plummer's to lose he has been set up to take this in every way possibly. Dujardin's win is a bit surprising, but I think it was just as much of a possibility as Pitt or Clooney, and I'm cool with it, a lot of the film works mainly because of him (Bejo also made the film great, but truth be told its Dujardin's film). I am glad this wasn't terribly predictable as the past awards have been, at least the Artist isn't completely steamrolling the competition. Still, I won't say this hurt the Artist or really aided the Help to being a contender, but still nice to see it get some love outside of Davis or Spencer. Here is the list of winners, now back to my Oscar predictions:

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer The Help
Best Female Lead: Viola Davis The Help
Best Male Lead: Jean Dujardin The Artist
Best Cast: The Help

Oscar-nomics: Directors Guild Winners

Man, trying to find a new picture for each new Artist win  is getting tough

Well, ladies and gentlemen we have our big Oscar winner, and it seems with little competition. Michel Hazanavicius won the Directors Guild Award for the Artist, which most often than not wins the Oscar. Having already won the Producer's Guild, with the Screen Actors to follow, it seems to be unbeatable at this point. I was pulling for Scorcese, who won the Globe a week or so ago, posed a threat to the Artist, but it seems that is a long-shot at this point. On the Documentary side, a bit of a frustrating night since Project Nim, one of a few Documentaries I picked as a frontrunner, was snubbed from the Oscar Competition. While deserved, it does little to help with the predicting (neither did the producers guild, so we'll see what happens). I have my thoughts on the Documentary category, but I will save it for my Oscar-nomics predictions at a later time. For now, here are the winners, tonight will be the Screen Actors Guild Award, lets see how that goes:

Outstanding Directing in a Feature Film: Michel Hazanavicius The Artist

Outstanding Directing in a Documentary Feature: James Marsh Project Nim

Oscar-nomics: Screen Actors Guild Predictions

So tomorrow the Screen Actor's Guild will reveal their choices for best in acting, both individually and as an ensemble. They also have this for tv, but I think I will stick with the film side for now. Supporting Actor is pretty well set, Plummer should have no problem. However, I am not 100% on Spencer, and if she were to lose momentum it would be here. This award is pretty much the other nominee's last shot at an upset, as this award is the last major one before the Oscars, and it aligns pretty well most of the time. The lead categories are where most of the action will be, as the Clooney/Pitt and Davis/Streep competition will probably be settled. Clooney and Streep are the safe bets. However, I am pulling for Pitt and Davis because I think they are due and I think they deserve it (Fassbender deserves it more, honestly, but sadly was ignored). I would be happy with any of them winning, so we'll just have to wait and see. Ensemble is between the Help and the Artist. I think the Artist will take it cause it has the momentum, I just see the Help as a possible spoiler, so again we'll have to wait and see. Here is the list below:

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer The Help
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer Beginners
Best Actress: Meryl Streep The Iron Lady
Best Actor: George Clooney The Descendants
Best Ensemble: The Artist

Oscar-nomics: Best Costume Design Prediction

Now, I am the first to admit that I am horrible when it comes to fashion sense. My style is if its clean, its good. So I may not be one of the best voters when it comes to Costume design, but I do have an understanding of how the Academy works. First, here are the nominees:

Anonymous- Lisy Cristl

The Artist- Mark Bridges

Hugo-Sandy Powell

Jane Eyre- Michael O'Connor

W.E.- Arianne Phillips

Now, many will point to the Artist or Hugo as the frontrunners in this category based on there Best Picture nominations, but I am not so convinced. Many thought the same about the King's Speech, which ended up losing to Alice in Wonderland. This only proved that the Academy cared less about the film itself, and more about the costumes within it. There is a rule of thumb, and the same goes for makeup, that the most noticeable and most extravagant win this (not saying Alice was the the latter, but definitely the former). As much as the Artist deserves to be here for its spot on designs of the 1920's/30's wear, I don't see it taking this. I see Anonymous or Jane Eyre taking this one, although if Hugo does pull off a win, you won't hear me complaining. However, I think Jane Eyre is the kind of film made to win this award, Anonymous as well but I give an edge to Jane Eyre mostly because the film was more liked than Anonymous and I just thought the costumes looked better in Jane Eyre. Though Anonymous was a little more flashy with the costumes, I still think Jane Eyre's pristine period costumes are more deserving.  If the Artist or Hugo do win in this category (which I think the latter does in some way), than it'll definitely be a big night for either film (though I don't think the Artist will need it at this point). Well that's it for now. Which category will I predict next, time will tell...

Predicted Winner: Jane Eyre

Runner-Up: Anonymous

Who I think Should Win: Hugo


Should've been Nominated: Midnight in Paris

Oscar-Nomics: American Society of Cinematographers Nominations

Well, another set of awards nominations have come through, this time for the cinematographers. The nominations are listed below, and again I am thrilled with this list. I think if Emmanuel Lubezki gets snubbed in any awards show would be shocking, I still hold this to be his to lose. Not to be outdone, though, the brilliant work of Jeff Cronenweth for Dragon Tattoo and Richardson for Hugo also got in, and Hoyte van Hoytema for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy." I thought the film was ok, but the cinematography really stood out in my mind, so to see it get this nomination is good to see. I still have yet to see The Artist, but considering its an Awards Contender and is a silent film, to see it not here would be disparaging, so good for it. Great list, each deserving, wouldn't be surprised if this is our Oscar list as well. Here is the full list below:


Guillaume Schiffman for "The Artist," 
Jeff Cronenweth for "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,"
 Robert Richardson for "Hugo," 
Hoyte van Hoytema for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" 
Emmanuel Lubezki for "The Tree of Life"