Oscar-nomics: Supporting Actress Prediction

While I have had my complaints about most categories thus far, I am slightly less annoyed with this one (a little change of pace, less hate or at least an attempt on my part). There have been many strong female performances this year, one of which I thought stood out amongst the list. While I do think there was a major snub, the performance wasn't gaining momentum, so oh well. My major problem is right actress, wrong movie, and its pretty obvious when you think about it. I will go into this more later, but for now lets talk about the other nominees:

Bérénice Bejo: The Artist
I like this nomination, she does a great job in the film as a fan and possible love interest to Jean Dujardin in the film. Having had an already built rapport between the two and the director, her acting is quite fluid. She brings a level of charm and quirkiness to the role, while also being able to bring some emotional depth to the more dramatic scenes. She is the perfect match for Jean Dujardin, and is a strong contender, but has gained little momentum towards a win. It is possible that she could get picked up with a possible Artist Sweep, but for now I'm predicting she will be on the outside looking in.

Jessica Chastain: The Help
This is my favorite nominee, but not my favorite nomination. While I do feel she did fine work in The Help, she did even better work in the Tree of Life. I think that had she gained momentum for the latter film, she would've gained serious momentum for a win for a couple of reasons, many of which more than likely hurt her chances now. For starters, had she received a nomination for the Tree of Life, we would be seeing two films showcasing her range as an actress. She would also not need to worry about vote-splitting, which in this situation would hurt her more than Octavia Spencer for the same film. Since they share most of there screen time together, you already see the other actress' performance through their oscar nomination. So, with that in mind, this nomination puts her more in a severe disadvantage so while I want her to win, it is just not in the cards.

Melissa McCarthy: Bridesmaids
While I didn't care for the film all that much outside of McCarthy's performance, I don't think it was a nomination worthy performance. While we do see some true comedic chops, something you don't see enough of, I don't think this was something that should've gained awards attention. I think this was just a performance that was put in the right situation of awards momentum to get her pass to the Kodak. That being said, I really would put her in the bottom half of this list in terms of actually winning. The nomination is truly the award here.

Janet Mcteer: Albert Nobbs
This is something where I felt like she would be what I call "awards filler." Not to belittle her performance, she really dives into the skin of a transgender and truly makes the performance her own. The fact of the matter is that she has little to no chance on winning. While the film received a few other nominations, it was not a terribly well liked film and will more than likely end up empty-handed. Also, the performance has gained little momentum, like several other of her fellow nominees, so the nomination is the reward.


Indeed, no one has quite topped:















Octavia Spencer: The Help
Personally, I wouldn't have picked this performance as a winner, but its hard to bet against it at this point. She has won the Critic's Choice, Golden Globe and SAG so the Oscar is a forgone conclusion at this point. It is deserving, she shows a lot of range with this performance, showing true emotions in the tense scenes while also giving the show some comic relief moments. Its a deserving performance, not my first pick, but nonetheless ladies and gentlemen, I give you your Oscar winner here.



Will Win: Octavia Spencer The Help
Runner-up: Berenice Bejo The Artist

Should win: Jessica Chastain The Help (Even though it should be for Tree of Life)
Should've been nominated: Carey Mulligan Shame