Oscar-nomics: Best Short Film Predictions

Ok, so this is a rather tricky one, which is kind of why I am doing all three at once. Like many of the categories, unless you are part of the branch of the specific field in the Academy (such as acting, directing, etc.), you get a vote in said category. This is why the guild awards generally play true to the Oscars because many are one in the same in terms of voting branches. This makes it even harder for the short films because a very small number of people watch the films and vote. As a result, these categories are, at best, a crap shoot. To at least have some kind of educated guess, I went and saw the Live Action and Animated Shorts (they weren't showing Documentary, although I doubt even that would've given me the edge in predicting them). That being said, I have my favorites and I am going with those, but I do think the Animated branch will probably go a different route (I have already prepared myself for a night of sorrow, as you might have already noticed in past prediction blogs). Here are the nominees, and I will start with Documentary because if your going to do wild guesses, why not start with the one you are least prepared to predict, right? :

Best Documentary Short Feature 
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement – Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin 
God Is the Bigger Elvis – Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson 
Incident in New Baghdad – James Spione 
Saving Face – Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy 
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom – Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen

Thoughts: Again, the one category I was unable to see so a shot in the dark for this one (I tagged the films to avoid making this too long since I am doing all three). I have noticed, though, I trend in uplifting Documentaries taking the award the past couple of years. Each of these Documentaries have some form of that, so an obvious pick to me is hard. I'd pick between The Barber of Birmingham or Incident in New Baghdad, but I can also see The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom taking it, tough decisions. Watch it be that I am wrong and none of those three are picked (Saving Face is also justifiable). I am going with The Barber of Birmingham because I think it is a tale that is the kind of story the Academy would like to reward. I am wary about The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom, so that will be my runner-up.

Winner: The Barber of Birmingham
Runner-Up: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Best Animated Short
Dimanche – Patrick Doyon 
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore – William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg 
La Luna – Enrico Casarosa 
A Morning Stroll – Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe 
Wild Life – Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

Thoughts: This is the one category I feel fairly sure about, at least more sure in comparison to the others. I can see Dimanche and Wild Life winning for their very artistic animation, Wild Life in particular (though between the two, I'd pick Dimanche). Still, I am going for The Fantastic Flying Books because I think it has the best story of the bunch and the animation is rather strong. It was my favorite of the lot, so I am pulling for it to win. I wouldn't be surprised if I am wrong, but I will be stern with this one and stick with those wonderful flying books.

Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Runner-Up: Wild Life (I would say Dimanche or even the audacious Morning Stroll, but I think Wild Life's animation was more creative)

Best Live Action Short 
Pentecost – Peter McDonald and Eimear O'Kane 
Raju – Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren 
The Shore – Terry George and Oorlagh George 
Time Freak – Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey 
Tuba Atlantic – Hallvar Witzø

Thoughts: Pentecost is certainly up there for balancing Christianity with a child's love for the sport of futbol (and for none-other than my beloved Liverpool FC). Time Freak was a bit out there, though I enjoyed the story. The Shore is a plausible choice for its mixture of comedy a drama when it came to a man's past in his home of Northern Ireland, during the many troubles the country faced. I don't think Tuba Atlantic will take it (which means we probably have our winner folks) cause it was probably the most out there in terms of story telling (Time Freak was rather clever with their story telling). I am going with Raju because for a short film, it felt complete and thought provoking at the same time. To fit what they did in just 25 minutes was amazing. The Shore also felt like a complete story, but Raju brought some tough topics to the table. I'd say if any are going to win, its those two, but I am going with Raju for the win. Time Freak may win for its rather clever and inventive story, but I still feel Raju and The Shore were more complete.

Winner: Raju
Runner-Up: The Shore

I would like to point out that if my runner-up wins, I consider that a half point towards my win-lose ratio (at least for these categories where guessing is a best as it gets...