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Okay, I was waiting a while to predict this because, truth be told, I haven't seen the front runner in this category yet (at least the presumed frontrunner). That being said, it is a respectable list, don't have any major problems with this list. Honestly, most of the films I have seen are Original, so I was more bias when writing that one. Needless to say, like Original, we are in a position where we have some welcomed nominees, but in the end, only two here are on the radar for a win. Here are the nominees:
The Descendants: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash from The Descendants by Kaui Hart Hemmings
For awhile now, this film has been hailed as the one to beat and that so far stays true. Its an emotional film with many well written characters with a good sense of humor that doesn't belittle everything going on. Payne had previously won for the wonderful Sideways so while there has been a long standing thing lately of spreading the wealth, I think he's the safe money to win, especially since there is a good chance this film may get shut out in a few other categories. Still, I am reserved to say this in fact will win, even though I am predicting so. There is one other film that stands a chance at dethroning it.
Hugo: John Logan from The Invention of Hugo Cabret by Brian Selznick
While I loved the film, there were some problems with the script which make me feel like this is one of the weak links in the category. If there was one thing the film could've done better, it would've been to make the script a little more subtle than it was. It felt like too much was given to us rather than simply allowing us to explore the film on a deeper level. While I do see Hugo having a strong night in the technical categories, I'm afraid all the love for the film (which I suspect got it here) can't bring it a win here (if so, than ladies and gentlemen, I give you your Best Picture, this is how sure I am it won't win here).
The Ides of March: George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon from Farragut North by Beau Willimon
Honestly, I am not terribly surprised this made it in, since there was a late in the game boom going for it. It is also a taut, suspenful political drama filled with many great performances. I thought it kind of got bogged down with a melodramatic love triangle, but it didn't completely destroy the film for me. That being said, being the films only nominee, I think the nomination is the reward and it just doesn't have enough love to carry on to the win.
Moneyball: Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin; Story by Stan Chervin from Moneyball by Michael Lewis
Now, if you want to talk about a film that might have enough love to gain a win, than Moneyball could be an upset in the making, and for good reasons. It took a book many couldn't translate well into a smart, funny and inspirational movie. Bolstered by great performances, this is a very well made movie. I have a sneaking suspicion that this film may end up winning here for several reasons. For starters, it received more nominations than the Descendants which shows broader love (though the Descendants did gain a directing nom) and it took material no one thought could be made into a film and made a fantastic one at that. Granted, its Aaron Sorkin, the guy who made a film about Facebook. Granted, this would be back to back wins for the man, as well as Zaillian's second after Schindler's List, but lets be honest, would you complain if these two won again? Here's hoping...
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan from Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy by John le Carré
Personally, I had some problems with how this film played out, mostly since I found it a little hard to follow at times. That being said, I enjoyed it for the Thriller/Espionage film that it is and the nomination is surely a welcomed one. That being said, though, it stands no chance. Its not a Best Picture nominee and it hasn't quite had the run to merit an upset status. Still, congrats for them, the nomination is certainly the reward here.
Winner: The Descendants
Runner-Up: Moneyball
Should Win: Moneyball
Should've been Nominated: Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
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