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So, here we are, Best Picture. After two years of expanding then changing the category to possible expansion (depending upon number of votes), guessing the nominations have become a bit more tougher. That isn't to say there are films that are front-runners long before the announcement, but to guess the other possibles have now come to be a bit harder to figure out. That being said the list is both intriguing, and infuriating at the same time. Now, while there is a presumed front-runner, the fun part now, with the expanded list, is guessing what films would've made the top five, or for that matter what ranking did they make in the list. That being said, lets break down the sure fire contenders from the pretenders:
1. The Big Three: As with every year, there are three categories that unless you are, at the very least, nominated in each of these categories, your chances of winning are limited. Chalk it up to widespread love, as long as they have Screenplay, Directing and Editing nominations, they stand a shot. Many will say acting is important too, but not as much (though it doesn't hurt). With that in mind, lets look at the nominations and who survive to the next round:
The Artist: Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (Y)
The Descendants Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (Y)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Directing (N), Writing (N), Editing (N)
The Help: Directing (N), Writing (N) Editing (N)
Hugo: Directing (Y), Writing (Y) Editing (Y)
Midnight in Paris: Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (N)
Moneyball: Directing (N), Writing (Y), Editing (Y)
The Tree of Life: Directing (Y), Writing (N), Editing (N)
War Horse: Directing (N), Writing (N), Editing (N)
All right, now that we have gone through the ranks, it seems The Artist, The Descendants and Hugo are the frontrunners, and though we already have a presumed winner, we go on to our next category:
2. Who fills out the list?: With three films already locks, what would've been #4 and #5 on the list? To me, the safe bet would be Moneyball, because despite lacking the Directing nomination, it received a lot more love many didn't think it had (it landed a sound nomination for crying our loud). I think the editing nomination is also a reason why I consider it a safer bet, can't be in the hunt without it. Could it pull an upset? Not a chance, at least compared to the top 3. Now the other spot? The easy answer would be Midnight in Paris, which landed 2/3 of the necessary nominations. Many would like to see The Help make the list, but I am not so sure. I was assuming it would at least land a Screenplay nomination. Even though the acting branch, which is where The Help received its other nominations, I don't think even they would be enough to make it. Extremely Loud came out of nowhere, but it only has one other nomination, so that is unlikely. Tree of Life probably would be polarizing enough that while it probably received its fair share of 1st place votes, it probably wouldn't rank any closer on other voter's list. War Horse was a presumed lock, but it lost much momentum as the season went on. The Best Picture nomination was going to happen under these rules, but if it were still 5? Not likely. Here is my thoughts on what would've made the top five (in alphabetical order):
-The Artist
-The Descendants
-Hugo
-Midnight in Paris
-Moneyball
Now, to the big question:
3. Who Wins?: While The Descendants received love with an editing nomination, it didn't receive any other technical nominations so I think the love is mostly skin deep. Now if we are talking about widespread love, look no further than the nomination leaders Hugo and The Artist. There are great claims as to why both should win, cause they really should. The only difference is Hugo got Sound nominations and The Artist received nominations (and likely at least one win) in acting. So, who gets the trophy? When in doubt, follow the guilds. The Artist can't be stopped, so I see Hugo as the night's big runner-up. That is, I am predicting it to win in some categories, it will probably rank second in all the other categories. This may prove to be vital in creating an upset, as the tech and artistic categories do have me flip flopping (except for score and art direction, I think those shall be split between the two). That being said, I see The Artist taking it, with Hugo close behind. So, with that I give you my power rankings:
Predicted Winner/Power Rankings:
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. The Descendants
4. Midnight in Paris
5. Moneyball
6. The Help
7. War Horse
8. The Tree of Life
9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
My Personal Choices/Power Rankings:
1. Hugo
2. The Tree of Life
3. Midnight in Paris
4. The Artist
5. Moneyball
6. The Descendants
7. The Help
8. War Horse
9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
(Note: I have yet to see the last two, I may have slipped War Horse ahead of The Help, but without having seen it, I can't make that call)
What Should Have Been Nominated (In no real order):
-Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
-Shame
-Contagion
-Beginners
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