Oscar-nomics: Best Documentary Feature Predictions

Okay, so there is a problem that happens every year with both this category and the Foreign Language category. The films that are generally nominated very rarely make it to me in time in order to see it. That, or I miss it because they rarely get enough publicity early on that I don't hear about them until after the fact. That being said, the guild awards are generally my go-to in predicting a winner (Last years champ, Inside Job, was the only one to at least get nominated in each category). This year, however, that isn't the best prognosticator since few of these films got much guild love. I thought, for sure, Project Nim and Bill Cunningham (the only documentary I had seen of the shortlist) were locks, but alas, they are not. So, with the presumed one's out and very little guild love amongst the list, which one takes the prize? Honestly, I feel less sure about this than the Shorts. That being said, here are the nominees:
  
Hell and Back Again – Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner 
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front – Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman 
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory – Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky 
Pina – Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel 
Undefeated – TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay, and Richard Middlemas

Another awards prognosticator, Awards Nazi, named Hell and Back Again his favorite, and war documentaries have always had love in terms of nominations (Taxi to the Darkside won a few years back). That being said, I am doubtful for it to win, but I won't be surprised if it does. Undefeated is a rather inspirational movie, which have also had quite a bit of love in this category. While there is a plausibility this will take it, I don't think this will take it. Now, If a Tree Falls is an interesting case. Its an environmental film and stands its fair chances at winning, but I'm not predicting it. Again, though, I won't be surprised if I am wrong.I am feeling that it may be between Pina and Paradise Lost, though this is simply based on the fact that they at least got some love from the guilds (directing for Paradise Lost and Pina for Writing). If a Tree Falls also got a writing nom, but for some reason I have a feeling its between Pina and Paradise Lost because they are the two that I feel were the most talked about of the bunch and seemed to be "in the mix" for awhile now. I am predicting Paradise Lost because of the timely matter of the documentary, but I am also a fan of Wim Wenders, so if Pina wins, I won't be upset. Then again, I won't be upset if I am wrong, seeing as how I am not 100% on this one. We shall see, I guess...

Winner: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Runner-Up: Pina

Should Win: Hell and Back Again (because Awards Nazi liked it)
Should've been Nominated: Project Nim (mostly because I thought it had wide spread love amongst the guilds)