Oscar-nomics: Best Actor Predictions

This is the category I take most umbrage with, and not because who is in it, the list is respectable, but who is not. I thought Michael Fassbender not only had the biggest breakout year by far but also the best performance in Shame. He threw himself into every scene he was given and gave each scene no less than his all, which he did flawlessly. I was worried he would be snubbed since he failed to land a SAG nomination, but I was hoping the Academy would overlook that mess up and let him in. Oh well, lets see who got in instead, here are the nominees:

Demián Bichir A Better Life
No offense to Mr. Bichir, this is a well earned nomination, but its his nomination I am most upset about. While I am sure his performance is strong, it had a very little release. This, to me is one of those "hmm, maybe I will finally go check out this film," kind of nominees that happen every once in a while (such as Jacki Weaver last year for Animal Kingdom). That being said, he hasn't the momentum or the mentioned release time to truly mount an upset, so the nomination is the reward.

George Clooney The Descendants
This is arguably one of my favorite George Clooney performances. Not only do we see him be the George Clooney we all know and love, we also see his emotional side as a father trying to handle family and business all during a tragic accident. He was long since to be considered your winner, but I am not so convinced now. Lately, there has been a shift in momentum towards a new sheriff in town. I think Mr. Clooney will fall just short of...

Jean Dujardin The Artist
I knew this nomination was coming from a mile away, but I never considered him the frontiersmen. Then I started thinking about it and it actually makes the most sense. Being in a silent film, he must be able to act out each and every scene with only his body movements not his voice, which is hard to do. Granted, it throws subtlety out the window, but after seeing Mr. Dujardin on the awards circuit, there isn't a single bit of subtlety in his bones, and that's actually a compliment. He is a very charismatic man, he is in a Best Picture front-runner, and in a way he does the most acting than all the others combined (and they have the luxury of verbal conversations). I think Dujardin will squeak out a win here, and deservedly so (I mean since Fassbender is out).

Brad Pitt Moneyball
Now, I am really happy for this nomination, and I was hoping he would get more love than he did. Many were playing this category (and to a lesser extent the Adapted Screenplay category) as a Pitt vs Clooney battle. I was pulling for Mr. Pitt because while his is the most subtle of the two but also the most impactful, in my opinion, on the scene at had (Clooney was already surrounded by the emotional context of the scene). Pitt worked the dialogue with intelligence and humor, allowing us to better understand the logic of the game as well as Mr. Billy Beane. I only wish he had gained more momentum to win, because the man deserves to very much. That being said, I think he has been stuck in the #3 spot right now, but hey I'm pulling for you man (and this is coming from a devout Cardinals fan).

Gary Oldman Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Now, if you want to talk about subtle performances, look no further than Mr. Oldman's performance. I personally felt his performance, as well as the film, was too subtle for their own good and the plot kind of got a little muddled because of it. Also, this being his first nomination, you can't help but wonder if the nomination is to say, "See, we have nominated the guy," because he has often been snubbed of an Oscar nomination. That being said, he has no chance of winning, he's not carrying a Best Picture nominee, he's had little award's season love and his performance isn't really much of a standout. The nomination is the reward.

And this was about as restrained as I can be in terms of holding back my hatred of the Academy for snubbing Mr. Fassbender, now if you'll excuse me, I am going to go and blow off some.... steam....

Winner: Jean Dujardin The Artist
Runner-Up: George Clooney The Descendants


Should Win: Brad Pitt Moneyball (but Jean Dujardin would be runner-up in this category)
Should've been Nominated: Michael Fassbender Shame

Oscar-nomics: Best Adapted Screenplay Nominations

 VS

Okay, I was waiting a while to predict this because, truth be told, I haven't seen the front runner in this category yet (at least the presumed frontrunner). That being said, it is a respectable list, don't have any major problems with this list. Honestly, most of the films I have seen are Original, so I was more bias when writing that one. Needless to say, like Original, we are in a position where we have some welcomed nominees, but in the end, only two here are on the radar for a win. Here are the nominees:

The Descendants: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash from The Descendants by Kaui Hart Hemmings

For awhile now, this film has been hailed as the one to beat and that so far stays true. Its an emotional film with many well written characters with a good sense of humor that doesn't belittle everything going on. Payne had previously won for the wonderful Sideways so while there has been a long standing thing lately of spreading the wealth, I think he's the safe money to win, especially since there is a good chance this film may get shut out in a few other categories. Still, I am reserved to say this in fact will win, even though I am predicting so. There is one other film that stands a chance at dethroning it.

Hugo: John Logan from The Invention of Hugo Cabret by Brian Selznick

While I loved the film, there were some problems with the script which make me feel like this is one of the weak links in the category. If there was one thing the film could've done better, it would've been to make the script a little more subtle than it was. It felt like too much was given to us rather than simply allowing us to explore the film on a deeper level. While I do see Hugo having a strong night in the technical categories, I'm afraid all the love for the film (which I suspect got it here) can't bring it a win here (if so, than ladies and gentlemen, I give you your Best Picture, this is how sure I am it won't win here).
  
The Ides of March: George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon from Farragut North by Beau Willimon

Honestly, I am not terribly surprised this made it in, since there was a late in the game boom going for it. It is also a taut, suspenful political drama filled with many great performances. I thought it kind of got bogged down with a melodramatic love triangle, but it didn't completely destroy the film for me. That being said, being the films only nominee, I think the nomination is the reward and it just doesn't have enough love to carry on to the win.
  
Moneyball: Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin; Story by Stan Chervin from Moneyball by Michael Lewis

 Now, if you want to talk about a film that might have enough love to gain a win, than Moneyball could be an upset in the making, and for good reasons. It took a book many couldn't translate well into a smart, funny and inspirational movie. Bolstered by great performances, this is a very well made movie. I have a sneaking suspicion that this film may end up winning here for several reasons. For starters, it received more nominations than the Descendants which shows broader love (though the Descendants did gain a directing nom) and it took material no one thought could be made into a film and made a fantastic one at that. Granted, its Aaron Sorkin, the guy who made a film about Facebook. Granted, this would be back to back wins for the man, as well as Zaillian's second after Schindler's List, but lets be honest, would you complain if these two won again? Here's hoping...

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan from Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy by John le Carré

Personally, I had some problems with how this film played out, mostly since I found it a little hard to follow at times. That being said, I enjoyed it for the Thriller/Espionage film that it is and the nomination is surely a welcomed one. That being said, though, it stands no chance. Its not a Best Picture nominee and it hasn't quite had the run to merit an upset status. Still, congrats for them, the nomination is certainly the reward here.

Winner: The Descendants
Runner-Up: Moneyball

Should Win: Moneyball
Should've been Nominated: Girl with the Dragon Tattoo 

Oscar-nomics: Best Original Score Prediction

This category is one I rarely get upset with, cause I am a sucker for a good musical score. Like the Social Network and Slumdog Millionaire or even the Bourne Ultimatum, Scores always work their ways and sometime can make or break a film for me. This years list of nominees are all strong, but I think that even though they won last year, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross' score for Dragon Tattoo I thought helped added to the level of intensity as well as creepiness Fincher tried to draw from both them and the cinematography. Also, I thought Alexandre Desplat's score for Tree of Life was amazing, but it was deemed ineligible. Oh well, lets take a look at the nominees shall we:

War Horse: John Williams

I find it a little astounding that this is his first nomination since Memoirs of a Geisha back in '06, but he makes up for it by being a double nominee. This nomination I saw coming from a mile away, it has everything the Academy looks for in a Score. It has a sense of grandeur, its powerful and it definitely adds to the scene at hand. Its a standout for sure, and probably would've won in another year. However the film, while a best picture contender, has not had the kind of momentum to really drive itself into winning many awards, and I see this film coming up short.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: Alberto Iglesias

Now talk about a nominee out of left field. Granted, I am thrilled to see it here, thriller/espionage films don't often get this kind of recognition, which is a shame. The score is rather terrific, its subtle in every scene, it plays well into said scene and it never overstays its welcome. Personally, I am glad this was able to sneak in, even if some other more awards established films that I liked were knocked off. Still, as great as it is to see it here, I consider it the longest of long-shots here. It hardly gathered any awards momentum and it isn't a Best Picture contender, so this is where the nomination is the reward, still kudos for that.

The Adventures of Tintin: John Williams

This is my personal favorite of the dual nominations of Mr. Williams. It, along with a little help from the brilliant sound team (which they themselves were rudely ignored) aided in providing us with a sense of wonder and amazement with every scene unfolding before us. Whether it was watching the fights unfold, traveling to far and distant lands, or simply enjoying a day out shopping, the music always added that little extra something that I frequently enjoyed. Still, as much as I enjoyed this I am afraid this also is not helped by not having a Best Picture nomination, or an Animated nomination either. In fact, being the only nomination of the film itself, I consider this film to be in last place, sadly. If the academy are wanting to award Williams for his work, which I still doubt will happen, it will likely go to War Horse instead. Still, another great score to see in this list.

Hugo: Howard Shore

Personally, this might be my favorite of the list. Its playful, energetic, always plays to the scene, but becomes sort of its own entity when it comes to the scene at hand. For example, this song I picked helps us explores the mind of the legendary Georges Melies through his films. I would pick this to win, and honestly with all of the things going for it the score definitely stands a shot. Unfortunately I see it coming up short come Oscar night to a score that, well, carried the film in some respects.

The Artist: Ludovic Bource

Now, hear me out about what I said. In the silent era, music in the film was crucial cause it spoke for the characters. It helped move the movie along and not give away what the film truly is: a silent film. Without the score, many would not want to watch a film solely based on the motions being shown on the screen. So, with that being said, Scores in silent films are crucial, and without Ludovic Bource's wonderful score, it wouldn't be what it is today. I enjoyed this film because of the Score (also for Dujardin and Hazanavicius's direction, but that's for another time). The Score is playful, yet also powerful. It plays to the scene, as any silent film score would, and definitely adds its own two cents to the scene. While I want to see Hugo win this, I think the Artist not only should win this, but needs to. If it doesn't, then we might be in for a train wreck of an evening for the film. I mean, truth be told, its really the story teller here. It helps us understand what the actors are trying to portray in the scene without a single word of dialogue, and it works on all levels. This is your winner.

Winner: The Artist
Runner-up: Hugo

Should Win: The Artist (for what it is to the film, I think it should win, even though I enjoyed Hugo's more)
Should've Been Nominated: Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Oscar-Nomics: American Society of Cinematographers Nominations

Well, another set of awards nominations have come through, this time for the cinematographers. The nominations are listed below, and again I am thrilled with this list. I think if Emmanuel Lubezki gets snubbed in any awards show would be shocking, I still hold this to be his to lose. Not to be outdone, though, the brilliant work of Jeff Cronenweth for Dragon Tattoo and Richardson for Hugo also got in, and Hoyte van Hoytema for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy." I thought the film was ok, but the cinematography really stood out in my mind, so to see it get this nomination is good to see. I still have yet to see The Artist, but considering its an Awards Contender and is a silent film, to see it not here would be disparaging, so good for it. Great list, each deserving, wouldn't be surprised if this is our Oscar list as well. Here is the full list below:


Guillaume Schiffman for "The Artist," 
Jeff Cronenweth for "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,"
 Robert Richardson for "Hugo," 
Hoyte van Hoytema for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" 
Emmanuel Lubezki for "The Tree of Life"