Oscar-nomics: Best Original Screenplay

In my opinion, original screenplay must be the harder of the two screenplays. I mean to adapt another person's material must be difficult, but to come up with new material entirely on your own,  just find that to be amazing. Needless to say, we get a lot of that with this batch of nominees. I am sad that the great 50/50 and Win Win, the little indie that could, were left off the list. That being said, there are some likes and dislikes with this list, but lets get into that later. Here are the nominees:

The Artist: Michel Hazanavicius
Now many are quick to call foul on this for not having a true screenplay, but I say otherwise. The true story written here is filled with such a design that it needn't have a screenplay, which is good since that is the films intention. Its a well appointed story with many great plot twists and suspense as well as humor that makes even the most jam-packed screenplays seem empty by comparison. That being said, it really is the acting, directing and editing that truly shine in this film, and the Academy generally go for witty and sharp humor/dialogue in a screenplay, so I think this will come up short. In the case of a sweep, which I am not buying into, it might have a chance at taking this, but for now runner-up it shall be.

Bridesmaids: Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo
Now, I might be in the minority, but I think this doesn't deserve to be here. While I found the film to be ok, I didn't see it as Oscar-ly and just saw it as a crude, very dark screenplay that I felt never truly resolved itself in the end. Now I am not surprised by the nomination, it was a long time coming, I was just hoping that the Academy would have gone for something less, well crude. I will take solace that this won't win for the fact that it has only one other nomination, for McCarthy. Again, I didn't hate the film, I just don't think its Academy material.

Margin Call: J.C. Chandor
I am extremely surprised by this nomination, it kind of came out of nowhere. It gained some Indie momentum, but not as much as Win Win or 50/50 for me to consider it in the mix. While I have yet to see the film, it does look like something the Academy might go for (a suspenseful business film filled with what must be some clever writing about the collapse of the stock exchange). That being said, it doesn't stand a chance. Not only is it the film's sole nomination, it has, as I said earlier, gained no momentum to even campaign an upset, the nomination is the reward.

Midnight in Paris: Woody Allen
This was arguably my favorite screenplay of the year. Not only is great with its 20's dialogue, but also meshing it with modern day dialogue is brilliant and effortless. It is also quite witty and rather sharp. My favorite sequences of the year was Corey Stoll's well written Hemingway (ANOTHER MAN ROBBED!!!). I am happy to say that, unless the Artist gets more love than I am predicting, this is your winner. Woody may hate awards, but awards love Woody. Everything is going his way and if he takes the Writer's Guild, which I am assuming he will, I think that will further assure the win (note: I know the Artist was ineligible and the nomination was a long time coming, but I just can't see it taking this one).

A Separation: Asghar Farhadi
I am a sucker for international films that tell a story that is not only unique in its own right, but also mixes in their nationality's culture as well (Y Tu Mama Tambien quickly comes to mind). That being said, A Separation is a welcomed surprise, I am happy it was able to get in while 50/50 and Win Win have not. While I have not seen it (yet), I have this on my list of most anticipated, so to see it in here clearly shows two things: A) the film is loved by the Academy and B) the screenplay is fantastic. I know B might sound like a bias opinion, but foreign films rarely crack through. Unless you are a world renowned Foreign director/writer (ie Pedro Almodovar), or you film is quite fantastic (ie Y Tu Mama Tambien/Cidade de Deus), foreign films generally never make it. That being said, unless your a big named foreign film writer, you equally almost never win. Still, good for Farhadi on getting the nomination, it is well earned.

Winner: Midnight in Paris
Runner-up: The Artist

Should Win: Midnight in Paris
Should've been Nominated: Win Win

Reason Why it Should Win:

 

(This is probably the only time I'm doing this, but I mean this gives us both great dialogue and strong acting)

 

Oscar-nomics: Best Art Direction Predictions

 

While I am starting to second guess my thoughts on both Costume and Makeup, I am pretty confident in my choice for Best Art Direction. There are several things going for it, which I will go into when I talk about said films. The list overall, is pretty strong, definitely one of my favorites. Many are quick to say Tinker, Tailor was robbed, and I do think it deserves to be here. However, since my favorite made it in over it, I am willing to overlook it this one time. Here are the nominations:

The Artist: Laurence Bennett and Robert Gould

This is an obvious choice for a nomination, its got everything going for it. Pitch perfect period piece, a very well loved film and a best picture frontrunner. I did enjoy this film's art direction, it along with the costume an cinematography, gives us a vibrant picture of Hollywood during the silent era. As great as the art direction is, I don't think even being the frontrunner can help it topple the sure bet in this category.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows pt. 2: Stuart Craig and Stephanie McMillan

Fantasy films do often see some love in this category, musicals too. Pan's Labyrinth, LOTR Return of the King, Alice in Wonderland, all past winners and each carrying a fantastical tone with each of them. While this is a deserving nominee, its only the saga's 3rd nomination, which means the wizard community hasn't had much love in this category (at least not as much as it could/should've). I don't think this will end the winless streak the HP crew have been facing, at least not compared to another film nominated in this category.

Hugo: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo

Yet another film that will come up... nah just kidding this is your winner. A fantasy film with glorious Art Direction (one of my personal favorites) and a film that is obviously loved by the Academy. I had a feeling this would be a tech. and craft favorite, and I think that is how it will pan out. I am second guessing its chances in Costume, but for now this is the sure fire thing I believe it will win this category for sure.

Midnight in Paris:  Anne Seibel and Hélène Dubreuil 

A fantastic choice in my opinion, I was worried it wasn't going to make it. Honestly, this would probably be my favorite surprise of the year. Like I said in my review of the film, I am a sucker for 1920's, design and style. This is a perfect rendition of said period and it swerves effortlessly from then and now, which for it being Paris is no small feet. That being said, if there were to be an upset, it won't be from this film, more than likely the Artist cause it stands a better chance at a sweep than Paris does.

War Horse: Rick Carter and Lee Sandales 

Another respectable choice, period war drama with production designs as grandiose as its score and cinematography. The fact that it is a Best Picture nominee is meaningless, considering all but Harry Potter carries one, and I don't think this has what it takes to take it down. In fact, I have a sneaking suspicion that War Horse isn't as strong a contender in as many categories as I had originally thought. War films rarely win this category, so I am saying this is a sure no for this film. 

Winner: Hugo

Runner-Up: The Artist

Should Win: Hugo

Should've been Nominated: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Oscar-nomics: Best Visual Effects Predictions

Still working on the design here, bare with me

  





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Now, I have to be honest, I don't really care for visual effects. That isn't to say I hate them, but I am more of a story enthusiast and if that is done well, then the visual effects can and should be used to help enhance the film around it. That is why while I have my prediction, and at this point I think its a bankable one, I am having a sneaking suspicion one film, equally deserving mind you, might upset here. Before I go into that, however, let us take a look at the nominees (by the way, no Tree of Life? What the f*#! academy?):

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows pt. 2: Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, and John Richardson
This is the third nomination of the HP team, a sign that the academy likes the bunch, but isn't in love since the other 5 weren't nominated. Still, its nice to see them make it in, given the final film is quite arguably their most ambitious in terms of effects and such, with the Battle of Hogwarts looking as amazing as it did. That being said, the only true chance I see it winning would be out of respect for it being the last HP film, which I just can't see happening.

Hugo: Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, and Alex Henning
This is a dark horse in this category, and is deserving of the win if it gets the gold statue. Its visual effects really enhanced the film in a way that it wasn't over the top, like one of the nominees I will mention later. Whether its the nightlife of Paris, a visual showcase of the legendary Georges Melies, or the intricate dream sequences, one involving a train falling off its tracks. While I don't generally care for the effects, I will say that I enjoyed the special effects in this film. There is also a clear love for the film, as its 11 nominations show, and its the sole Best Picture nomination (which is understandable if you look at the other nominations, minus the previous one of course). Don't be surprised if we see this film winning come Oscar night, but for now I see it just coming up short.

Real Steel: Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Danny Gordon Taylor, and Swen Gillberg
I have a really big problem with this nomination. I don't think this doesn't belong in the category, it clearly uses mo-cap technology aptly for its robot fighting scenes (if not a tad clunky). The fact is, it took out a category that only did a beautiful showcase of the creation of the freaking universe. I feel this film robbed the Tree of Life of its deserving nomination, argh. That being said, it wasn't a terribly well liked film, more liked than some others, but not enough for it to merit Oscar attention. Also, it didn't really get that much of an audience so I felt the film would disappear, and it clearly didn't. That being said, I doubt it has any chance of winning here, so the nom is the award (ugh).

Rise of the Planet of the Apes: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, and Daniel Barrett
There is so much going for this film to win that I am betting on this one to take it. Its visual mo-cap of the actors playing apes was very well done, it reminded me of the visual effects done on the aliens in Avatar. Its visual effects are seemless, anchored only more so by a strong performance by Andy Serkis. This film is also on a Visual Effects hot streak, so it is the strong frontrunner. While I am predicting it to win, it should be noted that this is the films only nomination, so I think its not as in a strong 1st as I had thought. Hugo could very well take it out in the end, but for now I am banking on those damn dirty apes.

Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon: Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew E. Butler, and John Frazier
A Hollywood blockbuster with sense-destructive visuals and sound designs. It was a lock since its debut, and with little competition as it has in previous years (or apparently little competition since the creation of the universe with beauty and style is considered "unworthy"), a nomination seemed more and more likely. However, I can count the ways this film won't win, but I will stick with the traditional, "The Academy hates Transformers." It was a terrible film, but it is hard to discredit its sound and visuals so those, like many Bay films, will get the nomination and not win, and I don't see this film changing this trend.

Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Runner-up: Hugo

Should win: Hugo or Rise of the Planet of the Apes (I'm not picky)
Should've Been Nominated: Tree of Life

Oscar-nomics: Supporting Actress Prediction

While I have had my complaints about most categories thus far, I am slightly less annoyed with this one (a little change of pace, less hate or at least an attempt on my part). There have been many strong female performances this year, one of which I thought stood out amongst the list. While I do think there was a major snub, the performance wasn't gaining momentum, so oh well. My major problem is right actress, wrong movie, and its pretty obvious when you think about it. I will go into this more later, but for now lets talk about the other nominees:

Bérénice Bejo: The Artist
I like this nomination, she does a great job in the film as a fan and possible love interest to Jean Dujardin in the film. Having had an already built rapport between the two and the director, her acting is quite fluid. She brings a level of charm and quirkiness to the role, while also being able to bring some emotional depth to the more dramatic scenes. She is the perfect match for Jean Dujardin, and is a strong contender, but has gained little momentum towards a win. It is possible that she could get picked up with a possible Artist Sweep, but for now I'm predicting she will be on the outside looking in.

Jessica Chastain: The Help
This is my favorite nominee, but not my favorite nomination. While I do feel she did fine work in The Help, she did even better work in the Tree of Life. I think that had she gained momentum for the latter film, she would've gained serious momentum for a win for a couple of reasons, many of which more than likely hurt her chances now. For starters, had she received a nomination for the Tree of Life, we would be seeing two films showcasing her range as an actress. She would also not need to worry about vote-splitting, which in this situation would hurt her more than Octavia Spencer for the same film. Since they share most of there screen time together, you already see the other actress' performance through their oscar nomination. So, with that in mind, this nomination puts her more in a severe disadvantage so while I want her to win, it is just not in the cards.

Melissa McCarthy: Bridesmaids
While I didn't care for the film all that much outside of McCarthy's performance, I don't think it was a nomination worthy performance. While we do see some true comedic chops, something you don't see enough of, I don't think this was something that should've gained awards attention. I think this was just a performance that was put in the right situation of awards momentum to get her pass to the Kodak. That being said, I really would put her in the bottom half of this list in terms of actually winning. The nomination is truly the award here.

Janet Mcteer: Albert Nobbs
This is something where I felt like she would be what I call "awards filler." Not to belittle her performance, she really dives into the skin of a transgender and truly makes the performance her own. The fact of the matter is that she has little to no chance on winning. While the film received a few other nominations, it was not a terribly well liked film and will more than likely end up empty-handed. Also, the performance has gained little momentum, like several other of her fellow nominees, so the nomination is the reward.


Indeed, no one has quite topped:















Octavia Spencer: The Help
Personally, I wouldn't have picked this performance as a winner, but its hard to bet against it at this point. She has won the Critic's Choice, Golden Globe and SAG so the Oscar is a forgone conclusion at this point. It is deserving, she shows a lot of range with this performance, showing true emotions in the tense scenes while also giving the show some comic relief moments. Its a deserving performance, not my first pick, but nonetheless ladies and gentlemen, I give you your Oscar winner here.



Will Win: Octavia Spencer The Help
Runner-up: Berenice Bejo The Artist

Should win: Jessica Chastain The Help (Even though it should be for Tree of Life)
Should've been nominated: Carey Mulligan Shame

Oscar-nomics: Best Makeup Predictions

 
Here we have yet another more is more category, as I've noted in the Best Costume Design Predictions. If you look at past winners in this category, it has often gone to the movie in which the Makeup has been quite distinguishable (Rick Baker, creator of many werewolves and such, has the most of these bad boys). This year, while there is a film whose makeup art is rather noticeable, there is a chance that we could see some competition to this theory. But first, here are the nominations:

Albert Nobbs: Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, and Matthew W. Mungle
While there is some impressive work on the transgender makeup and other makeup details, I think this is probably the weak link in the mix. I think this film is still in the mix, but don't count on this one to make a run against its other competitors.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows pt.2: Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, and Lisa Tomblin
This maybe your winner.  While there is some makeup designs we have seen in previous Harry Potter films, that still doesn't detract from the impressive designs the makeup team has delivered. Personally I think this one will win, because not only is it impressive, but the makeup designs is arguably the most noticeable of the bunch. Plus, with this being the last of a much beloved series that has so far been rudely unrewarded, this maybe the perfect time, even though it'd be an oddball category to do so. However, there is talk of a different option that could overtake it.

The Iron Lady: Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland
While most of the work seen in this film is subtle, there is something to be said about aging makeup. Its not as easy as one would think, but aging makeup is quite difficult in having the arduous task of keeping the makeup changes throughout the film subtle, but noticeable at the same time. This maybe why J. Edgar missed out, for its aging makeup was not as subtle as it should've been. That being said, this is being touted as the winner, but I am not truly feeling it. Last year, we had the same competition of age makeup vs extremely noticeable makeup with Barney's Version vs. the Wolfman, with the latter's noticeable makeup taking out the subtle aging makeup. Could this year be a change of pace. I am sticking with the noticeable makeup but don't be surprised if the Iron Lady takes it.

We shall see...

Will Win: Harry Potter
Runner-up: The Iron Lady

Should win: Harry Potter
Should've been nominated: Hugo

Oscar-nomics: Sound Editing/Mixing Predictions

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Not my best of display pictures, but what can you do?

Seeing as how I missed posting yesterday, I would figure I would do a double header to make up for lost time. I was thinking of doing both of the writing categories, but I feel those deserve there own, separate time. I picked doing both of the sound categories for two reasons: 1) I am never 100% on this and 2) I am predicting the same movie to win both so as to avoid having to explain the difference. Generally, when you are nominated in both categories, you are already the presumed frontrunner, which makes a bit of sense. Take last year, Inception won both and its closest competition was True Grit, the only other double nominee. I am not saying that this is an absolute but given 4/5 slots are double nominees, I'm going to assume there is a slight chance this will happen. And for my rant of the day: WHERE THE F!@* IS TINTIN!!! Now, with that out of the way, here are the nominees:

Moneyball: Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick (Sound Mixing only)
I am rather happy that this made the list, cause it has every right to be here. The mixing of the sounds in the baseball games is subtle in that it works to its advantages of raising the suspense of each hit and every tense moment. That being said, I think its too subtle and being that it is not also nominated for editing, I'd say its a long-shot, but A for the nomination.

Drive: Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis (Editing only)
Again, another solid choice, the sound designs were excellent and definitely helped set the mood. However, this is the film's sole nomination, following the rude snub of Mr. Brooks, which means the film's lack of overall love gives this little hope.

Now, for the dual nominees:

Transformers: Dark of the Moon: Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin (mixing) Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn (editing)
As bad as the Transformers films are, the sound designs are generally top notch. They help keep the action sequences from being unbearable (which is no mean feat in a Bay film) and actually makes them fun to watch at times. That being said, the Academy generally never had much love for the franchise, so seeing them take either of these would probably be the longest shot of the double nominees.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson (Mixing) Ren Klyce (editing)
Personally, this is my favorite of the lot. The mixing of the music to the scene as well as the editing of the creepy tones and intense sequences makes this a worthy nominee, and almost worthy winner. In another year, I would be picking this one hands down, but I don't see the film quite taking down these next two nominees.

Hugo: Tom Fleischman and John Midgley (mixing) Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton (editing)
Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if this is your winner. The sound design team does a wonderful time with the design and editing of the sounds that go on within the clock tower, as well as the train station (such as the scene with the train going through the station). This would be a welcomed win and a deserving one at that, but I am putting this as my runner up with a dark horse chance against this nominee (GwDT is also a dark horse, but I think Hugo stands a better chance at an upset).

War Horse: Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson (Mixing) Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom (editing)
Like how I noted in Best Original Score Prediction, this has everything going for it in the way of a win. Its a war film that has strong sound effects. This is from the same team that did Saving Private Ryan, and have won 7 of these bad boys in the past. Its hard to bet against them since they are in there comfort zone, which is why I have a sneaking suspicion they might end up losing. I am picking this film for a double win, but something tells me they might be set up for an upset, it just seems to easy the choice. I know that isn't the best excuse for a reason, but I have a feeling Hugo might overtake it. The Academy clearly loves Hugo with the 11 nominations, and there thoughts on War Horse weren't as loving as many had originally thought. Still, the safe money is War Horse, but I would be pleasantly surprised if Hugo upsets, or maybe even takes a split (personally I'm pulling for an editing upset for Hugo, or even Dragon Tattoo, but Hugo seems more likely).

That's it for today, fingers crossed I'm back tomorrow for more predictions...

Winner: War Horse (both editing and mixing)
Runner-up: Hugo (both editing and mixing)

Should win: Dragon Tattoo (editing) and Hugo (mixing)
Should've been nominated: The Adventures of Tintin (for both mixing and editing)

Oscar-nomics: Best Animated Feature Predictions

I have mentioned this before and I know I am not the first to say this, but it was a weak year for animated films. 2010 wasn't much better (though that's because I loved 2009's), but it at least had a Pixar gem that year. This year, Pixar didn't even make the cut, though I saw that coming anyway. So, without the biggest Animated name in the race, who gets the trophy. Easy, its The Adventures of Tin..... WHAT!!! I knew there was some distaste for motion-capture, but Tintin was a marvelous film nonetheless, seeing this snub is ridiculous. So, with that snub, and Pixar laying an egg this year, who shall win? Here are the nominees:

A Cat in Paris: Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli

A French animated film making the list is certainly a welcome considering many foreign films generally don't make it into this list (sadly). I think this was probably the biggest surprise of the year because while it has been respected by many overseas, it has barely seen the light of day here (I just heard about it at the nominations). While it is nice to see the Academy go for such a different nominee, I think the nomination is the reward here.

Chico and Rita: Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal

Another welcome surprise, but I was less surprised with this one since it had some love from the Annies and Goyas. This animated from the Isle of Mann (located near the UK), has gotten much love from international critics and has premiered to love by critics here in America. that being said, it has barely seen any time in theaters her, so much like A Cat in Paris, the nomination is the reward.

Kung Fu Panda 2: Jennifer Yuh Nelson

Good to see this film is doing well, considering it wasn't as respected as the first and didn't do as well financially. It was respected by critics, some of whom even considered it better, but not enough for me to get behind it. The Academy enacted a rule in which they would have 5 nominations if there were enough films, which was the case this year (Tintin made that cut for the record). I think had only three nominees had been picked, this film would just miss out. Still, nice to see it here.

Puss in Boots: Chris Miller

Again, good to see it make the cut, especially since it had a lot to prove as its first stand alone film outside the Shrek films. While it didn't do as well as the green Ogres films, it did respectable business to keep those hopes alive. Still, it didn't quite have as momentum as this last nominee.

Rango: Gore Verbinski

For a while it seemed like a Rango vs. Tintin match-up, and for good reasons. Both were well executed, told interesting stories and include wonderful voice talent, both deserve the prize. While this film may not hold up as well as the previous nominees, in a year with so-so competition, I see no reason why this film won't win. It also has been on a strong awards run, so with that and its biggest competition out of the mix, I am picking this to win.

Sorry for the rather rapid prediciton, my time is short. I will (or at least try to) be back tomorrow for more predictions, have fun at the movies otherwise...

Winner: Rango
Runner-up: Chico and Rita

Should Win: Rango
Should've been nominated: The Adventures of Tintin