Oscar-nomics: Predictions part 2

Howdy all, time for part two of my Oscar predictions. Fun part of this night, aside from the amazing splits we will be seeing in terms of wins (Im second guessing myself as I type), I am seeing a lot of wild card categories and sure things. We are in for one heck of night filled with “NO WAY!” and “WHERE DID THAT COME FROM” or my personal favorite, “HOLY S@#T” not that I say that often of course. So, off we are to the races for some more of my predictions:

Best Original Song: I actually just listened to Adele’s song to Skyfall just the other day (again, have been very bad at getting to the movies lately). It’s pretty good, not too familiar with her discography but I am aware of her musical prowess, and I don’t see the Academy overlooking her here, even if the night’s host, Seth McFarlane, is also nominated. It’s Adele vs. everyone else in this category.

Winner: Adele and Paul Epworth Skyfall from, well, Skyfall

Best Original Score: This one is fun because it can go a couple of ways. I am cutting Anna Karenina and Skyfall because the other’s are Best Picture contender’s, which generally takes it here. While John Williams is certainly loved by the Academy, I think they are good with having given him 5 Oscars already, doubtful they are giving him his 6^th this time around. Its between Argo and Life of Pie, which is kind of funny because this was originally going to be set up to be Argo’s consolation prize, but now its seeming to not be the case, but more on this later. I really am pulling for Alexadre Desplat to finally earn his much deserved gold, but the safe bet is Life of Pi, or I could have it backwards, but I am going to stick with it and say:

Winner: Life of Pie

Best Foreign Film: A slam dunk, and beyond it being the only one nominated in other categories (one of them being Best Picture), its well loved and right up the voters alley for those who generally vote in this category (generic but astute stereotype for this category if you ask me).

Winner: Amour

Best Animated Feature: Another fun one! Anyone truly stands a chance, though I would put Pirates in the backseat since it came out so long ago, and Paranorman cause stop motion generally doesn’t get much love. Frankenweenie should fall under that category as well, but Tim Burton does carry some weight and it would be fun to see him win, and he just might. However, it feels as though its between Brave and Wreck it Ralph. Pixar is generally the darling of the category, but I have a feeling Brave might be this years Cars, liked but not loved (I don’t know, but I’m sure its lovely, Wreck it as well). I am giving it to Wreck it Ralph because its looking like it has what it takes to bring down Pixar this year, but it’s pretty close.

Winner: Wreck it Ralph

Original Screenplay: All over the place, each have a strong shot at a win. Flight is out because it only has one other nomination, though I am ecstatic to see it here (would’ve loved to see it in either editing or Cinematography, yes I saw this one, I highly recommend it). Moonrise Kingdom is also out because it’s the films sole nomination (which is a tad depressing, but what can you do?). Zero Dark Thirty has a real shot at winning this, but I am having a feeling its going to come up just short of the other two. Django Unchained is looking poised to pull a win, being Quentin Tarantinos second Oscar, but I am going with Michael Haneke for Amour, this one I am basing on a hunch, I could be dead wrong, but I am sticking with Haneke

Winner: Amour

Best Adapted Screenplay: Also all over the place, but I think this is well positioned for Argo. While they do favor writer-directors, I don’t think tonights going to be the night for David O. Russell, though if there is a well positioned spoiler, its him. I think Life of Pi is a creative achievement, not so much a writing achievement, its probably taking up the rear. Beasts of the Southern Wild would be an inspired choice, but it doesn’t quite have the backing to truly go anywhere beyond the little film that almost could. Tony Kushner is a winner we’d come to expect with this category, and in another year he’d be my pick for sure. However, Argo has been taking the writing awards to the point where it’s the one to beat, and I don’t think it will stumble.

Winner:  Argo

What a fun night Saturday will be, some locks, some unknowns, this is the Oscar show to watch for the first time in a long time. Seth McFarlane is going to have a fun night with this, and while I am not the biggest fan of his work, I think he’s the man for the job and will do a fine job at that. We shall see Sunday, for now check back for the rest of my predictions….

Oscar-nomics: Overall Predictions pt. 1

First of all, my apologies for not doing my category by category predictions this year. Time got away from me and also I haven’t truly had a chance to catch many films (I have only seen 3/9 or the Best Pictures). Needless to say, this may be one of my favorite Oscar seasons in recent memory. Its certainly a relief considering I haven’t been this enthused about the race since the Hurt Locker won in 2009 (2011 was too easy and 2010 I was on the wrong end of the two man race that didn’t leave the best of tastes in my mouth). I can see any number of winners this year, but before we get to the big prizes, lets knock out the technical and craft categories (I will post my overall predictions with the other nominees after my commentary):

Best Sound

Yes, there is mixing and editing, but most of the times they go to the same film (I have an idea as to the difference, but its an educated guess at best). Very strong choices ranging from action shoot em ups, good to see you Skyfall, to the Best Picture love, theres love enough for Argo in both categories. I personally have Life of Pi being this years Hugo and taking the technical categories, but I am seeing a split here. Les Miserables is running on the “first musical performed live when filming” so I think its chances at Sound mixing are very real, so I am going with it. If not, then Life of Pi will ascert itself as the film to beat in the tech awards.

Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Best Sound Editing: Life of Pie

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pie or bust in this film, if there is one sure thing the film will win this night, its Visual effects.

Best Cinematography: I am a huge fan of Roger Deakins, should’ve won for any number of the Coens films, Fargo being my personal choice among any other film he has worked on, he is truly a master of the craft. However, like Emmanuel Lubezki (my personal favorite cinematographer) his name will always be overlooked for more showier work, and with that I go with Life of Pi to continue the “tech sweep” of sorts.

Best Shorts: Sorry, didn’t catch them this year, would love to though, but for now, your guess is as good as mine.

Best Costume Design, Makeup, and Production Design: This is where Life of Pi will halt its craft wins, mostly since its only in the latter of the three. However, these three are down to two films for each, but since one isn’t in  Makeup that one is more settled. Les Mis will take Makeup, unless the Academy looks for the “More is better” approach then it might still win (thank you Tom “close up camera shots” Hooper for that), but The Hobbit may pose a threat, but I doubt it. Les Miz would be considered a lock for the other two, but the close up shots from the director might hinder it. Anna Karenina is the one to beat for Costume Design, its precursor wins are a rather telling sign (that’s my answer and I am sticking with it, that and it seems flashier than Les Miz). Anna Karenina could also win Production Design, but I am going for Les Miz on this one.

Best Production Design: Les Miserables

Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Best Makeup: Les Miserables

All in all, I think Les Miz and Life of Pie will be the ones the Academy love, but for their tech and craft. In a year where we had many great films for differing reasons, it is such a hard time truly discerning a “Juggernaut” in this race. Every film up for the big award this night deserve some love, and most, if not all, will get some kind of support one way or another. Where will the others gather some love? Is history going to be made on Oscar night? I guess we will just have to wait and find out Sunday. For now, check back tomorrow for more of my predictions and thoughts of The Academy Awards.

Oscar-nomics: Overall Thoughts

Well, that was interesting. the 84th Academy Awards have come and gone and even though I didn't do so hot (I got 13 right, in my predictions), I take solace in the fact that of the one's I got wrong were my runner-ups (save for Documentary, Costume and Film Editing). I had a feeling Hugo was going to ride some love into winning the Sound and possibly Cinematography categories, but Visual Effects really surprised me. I mean, when a Best Picture nominee is in the category, history favors it, but I felt that Rise of the Planet of the Apes had it locked up for sure. Shows what I know. While I was off in Film Editing, I can't say I am no more than thrilled with Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for their great work on The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (arguably my second favorite of the year). As I mentioned in Documentary, I wouldn't be surprised if I was dead wrong, which I was, unfortunately. I do feel great, though, that I was able to guess 2/3 of the Best Shorts (and the third one was my alternate!). All in all, while I was happy with some of the surprises, I was pointing in the right direction for if I was wrong. Though I did make a joke to my mom when Meryl Streep won, saying, "I think the Academy is out to prove how wrong I was." Not to say she wasn't deserving, of course, but with the pro Davis campaign, well, you know what I mean...
The ceremony itself was quite fun, one of the better ones since the 81st and a hand full of others before that that I can remember. The presenters were fun, particularly the antics of Robert Downey Jr. as well as Emma Stone, whose co-presenters in both categories (Gwenyth Paltrow with the former Ben Stiller the latter), balanced each other nicely. Mr. Crystal was, as expected, top notch. While he was a little more safe than some would have wanted, I thought he did a great job considering the past two pairings. All in all, a nice evening, not the best. If I  would grade this one compared to previous ceremonies, I'd give it a B+. Thanks to all for reading my blogs, its been fun. Expect some more blogs when I get the chance, for now, have fun at the movies...

Biggest Surprise: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for Film Editing (Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)
                                  -While Mrs. Streep was a shock, I at least had her runner-up
Favorite Win: Bret McKenzie for Best Original Song (Man or Muppet The Muppets)
                                -Not my first choice from the film, but hey a win's a win
Favorite Speech: Christopher Plummer for Best Supporting Actor (Beginners)
                                -Though Asghar Farhadi was a close second for Best Foreign Film
Least Favorite Win: Robert Richardson for Best Cinematography (Hugo)
                                -Not because he isn't deserving, he is. My pride just swayed me to stick with Lubezki                                               for Tree of Life, could you blame me?

Oscar-nomics: Overall Predictions

Here is a quick overview of my picks, I am sticking to guns on most of the categories I was originally in question. I see Hugo being the big runner-up of the night. Personally, I am so close to picking it over War Horse for sound, but I just can't do it. Same with Costume, but again I think its deserving win for Art Direction will be good enough for the film. Now, if Hugo takes Visual Effects, which is highly possible mind you, then it good be a big night for Hugo in the tech and artistic categories. This could, in turn, make War Horse the biggest loser of the night, which is a possibility as well. Foreign Language film and Cinematography are also up for grabs. I am picking Monsieur Lazhar but hoping A Separation takes it, personally. Don't be surprised if In Darkness takes it either, remember the voters in this category are generally older and they love war films (but who doesn't, right?). I am changing Best Documentary Short (the only shorts category I didn't see) because other predictors are swaying me into a different direction. I am switching to Saving Face because it resembles many past winners in this categories. It could be Cherry Blossom or Incident in New Baghdad, we shall see. Other than that, I stick by my decisions. Here is just a quick look at my picks, with my runner-up to keep track that if I am wrong, at least I was close. Here are my picks:


Best Picture: The Artist
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius The Artist
        Runner-Up: Martin Scorcese Hugo


Best Actor: Jean Dujardin The Artist
        Runner-Up: George Clooney The Descendants


Best Actress: Viola Davis The Help
        Runner-Up: Meryl Streep The Iron Lady


Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer Beginners
        Runner-Up: Kenneth Brannagh My Week with Marylin


Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer The Help
        Runner-Up: Berenice Bejo The Artist


Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
        Runner-Up: The Artist


Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
        Runner-Up: Moneyball


Best Film Editing: The Artist
        Runner-Up: Moneyball


Best Animated Feature: Rango
        Runner-Up: A Cat in Paris


Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
        Runner-Up: Hell and Back Again


Best Foreign Film: Monsieur Lazhar
        Runner-Up/Should Win: A Separation


Best Original Score: The Artist
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Original Song: "Man or Muppet" The Muppets
        Runner-Up: "Real in Rio" Rio


Best Art Direction: Hugo
        Runner-Up: The Artist


Best Sound Mixing: War Horse
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Sound Editing: War Horse
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Documentary Short: Saving Face
        Runner-Up: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom


Best Live Action Short: Raju
        Runner-Up: The Shore


Best Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
        Runner-Up: Wild Life


Best Cinematography: The Tree of Life
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Costume Design: Jane Eyre
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Makeup: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows pt. 2
        Runner-Up: The Iron Lady


Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
        Runner-Up: Hugo


I haven't fully decided on whether or not I will blog during the show or if I will just post my thoughts afterwards. For now, have fun and enjoy the show everyone...

Oscar-nomics: Best Picture Predictions

VS

So, here we are, Best Picture. After two years of expanding then changing the category to possible expansion (depending upon number of votes), guessing the nominations have become a bit more tougher. That isn't to say there are films that are front-runners long before the announcement, but to guess the other possibles have now come to be a bit harder to figure out. That being said the list is both intriguing, and infuriating at the same time. Now, while there is a presumed front-runner, the fun part now, with the expanded list, is guessing what films would've made the top five, or for that matter what ranking did they make in the list. That being said, lets break down the sure fire contenders from the pretenders:


1. The Big Three: As with every year, there are three categories that unless you are, at the very least, nominated in each of these categories, your chances of winning are limited. Chalk it up to widespread love, as long as they have Screenplay, Directing and Editing nominations, they stand a shot. Many will say acting is important too, but not as much (though it doesn't hurt). With that in mind, lets look at the nominations and who survive to the next round:
The Artist: Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (Y) 
The Descendants Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (Y)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Directing (N), Writing (N), Editing (N)
The Help: Directing (N), Writing (N) Editing (N) 
Hugo: Directing (Y), Writing (Y) Editing (Y) 
Midnight in Paris: Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (N) 
Moneyball: Directing (N), Writing (Y), Editing (Y) 
The Tree of Life: Directing (Y), Writing (N), Editing (N) 
War Horse: Directing (N), Writing (N), Editing (N)


All right, now that we have gone through the ranks, it seems The Artist, The Descendants and Hugo are the frontrunners, and though we already have a presumed winner, we go on to our next category:


2. Who fills out the list?: With three films already locks, what would've been #4 and #5 on the list? To me, the safe bet would be Moneyball, because despite lacking the Directing nomination, it received a lot more love many didn't think it had (it landed a sound nomination for crying our loud). I think the editing nomination is also a reason why I consider it a safer bet, can't be in the hunt without it. Could it pull an upset? Not a chance, at least compared to the top 3. Now the other spot? The easy answer would be Midnight in Paris, which landed 2/3 of the necessary nominations. Many would like to see The Help make the list, but I am not so sure. I was assuming it would at least land a Screenplay nomination. Even though the acting branch, which is where The Help received its other nominations, I don't think even they would be enough to make it. Extremely Loud came out of nowhere, but it only has one other nomination, so that is unlikely. Tree of Life probably would be polarizing enough that while it probably received its fair share of 1st place votes, it probably wouldn't rank any closer on other voter's list. War Horse was a presumed lock, but it lost much momentum as the season went on. The Best Picture nomination was going to happen under these rules, but if it were still 5? Not likely. Here is my thoughts on what would've made the top five (in alphabetical order):


-The Artist
-The Descendants
-Hugo
-Midnight in Paris
-Moneyball

Now, to the big question:

3. Who Wins?: While The Descendants received love with an editing nomination, it didn't receive any other technical nominations so I think the love is mostly skin deep. Now if we are talking about widespread love, look no further than the nomination leaders Hugo and The Artist. There are great claims as to why both should win, cause they really should. The only difference is Hugo got Sound nominations and The Artist received nominations (and likely at least one win) in acting. So, who gets the trophy? When in doubt, follow the guilds. The Artist can't be stopped, so I see Hugo as the night's big runner-up. That is, I am predicting it to win in some categories, it will probably rank second in all the other categories. This may prove to be vital in creating an upset, as the tech and artistic categories do have me flip flopping (except for score and art direction, I think those shall be split between the two). That being said, I see The Artist taking it, with Hugo close behind. So, with that I give you my power rankings:

Predicted Winner/Power Rankings:

1. The Artist

2. Hugo

3. The Descendants

4. Midnight in Paris

5. Moneyball

6. The Help

7. War Horse

8. The Tree of Life

9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

My Personal Choices/Power Rankings:

1. Hugo

2. The Tree of Life

3. Midnight in Paris

4. The Artist

5. Moneyball

6. The Descendants

7. The Help

8. War Horse

9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

(Note: I have yet to see the last two, I may have slipped War Horse ahead of The Help, but without having seen it, I can't make that call)

What Should Have Been Nominated (In no real order):

-Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

-Shame

-Contagion

-Beginners

Osar-nomics: Best Film Editing Predictions

This is one of my favorite categories, which is why I saved it for last (besides Best Picture). Not only is it integral to the whole process of film-making (what good is a film if its not put together properly), but it is also just as necessary in predicting the Best Picture. The last film to take Best Picture and not be nominated in this category was Ordinary People back in 1980. You also get some non-Best Picture nominees, but worthy candidates to show that not all of the Best Picture nominees were truly the year's best in this category (it also helps narrow down the list). We lost that the past years when they made a mandatory 10 Best Picture list, but this year with new rules, its great to see a non-Best Picture make it (even though I thought it would make the list). That being said, I like the list, even though my favorite, Contagion, was not nominated. That being said, lets take a look at the nominees:

The Artist Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
To be a Best Picture front-runner, you almost have to have a nomination in this category. I do think this is a worthy nomination, and likely win. The editing is seamless and it helps move the story along when music isn't there at its aide (the composer can only do so much). Whoever has won the ACE Eddie (Editing guild) has gone on to win this award. Though they have split the award between Comedy and Drama, if one of them were to win this year, it would be this one, since the other one was...

The Descendants Kevin Tent
Not to belittle his work, I just didn't find it all that impressive. I think this is a nominee that is a telling sign of the Academy's love for the film. I say this because not even Payne's Sideways made the cut a few years back.That being said, I don't think the editing is flashy enough to get the win. I think a win in this category means they really loved it, and I have serious doubts they loved it more than The Artist or Hugo.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
Now, this is a nomination I am extremely happy about. It is extremely difficult to make almost 3 hours of footage anything but long and tiresome, and the duo did it wonderfully. This also shows a level of respect for the duo, having scored their third nomination in a row (Curious Case of Benjamin Button and won for the Social Network). I think it any film should be able to upset, its this one, I am hoping for this one to win, but truth be told it might be in the 3rd spot overall. Mind you, its the kind of flashy editing that does well in this category. However, by not being a Best Picture nominee, its clearly at a disadvantage, and is clearly not as loved as The Artist and...

Hugo Thelma Schoonmaker
Talk about best Director-Editor in the business, she and Martin Scorcese have worked together for decades. She won for the Departed The Aviator and Raging Bull, so she is rather well respected in the editing community. Add in that her film is a beloved Best Picture nominee, whose film does have its flashy moments of editing. Whether its the hustle and bustle of the train station, the wondrous adventures in Paris, or the detail put in each scene of Mr. Scorcese's love of film-making and Goerges Melies. I'd put this as the most possible spoiler, because even though it is loved and flashy, I don't think its as loved as The Artist.

Moneyball Christopher Tellefsen
Another great choice, and possible player for the win. The smooth editing of each baseball game as well the whip smart dialogue (which is key for any Aaron Sorkin film) makes this a viable candidate. Add in the fact that its a Best Picture nominee, it stands a chance. That being said, I think it may be in the weakest spot (aside from Dragon Tattoo). The Academy's love for the film is clear with its 6 nominations, and its as flashy as Dragon Tattoo to be strongly considered a contender. However, I just see this film coming up short, probably ahead of Dragon Tattoo, maybe behind The Descendants out of sheer love for the former. I'm putting this one in the should win, because while I am backing Dragon Tattoo, I think of the two Moneyball is the safer bet of the two, but don't get me wrong these are two solid nominees I am talking about.

Winner: The Artist
Runner-Up: Hugo


Should Win: Moneyball
Should Have Been Nominated: Contagion


gee, I wonder what the next category will be???

Oscar-nomics: Best Actor Predictions

This is the category I take most umbrage with, and not because who is in it, the list is respectable, but who is not. I thought Michael Fassbender not only had the biggest breakout year by far but also the best performance in Shame. He threw himself into every scene he was given and gave each scene no less than his all, which he did flawlessly. I was worried he would be snubbed since he failed to land a SAG nomination, but I was hoping the Academy would overlook that mess up and let him in. Oh well, lets see who got in instead, here are the nominees:

Demián Bichir A Better Life
No offense to Mr. Bichir, this is a well earned nomination, but its his nomination I am most upset about. While I am sure his performance is strong, it had a very little release. This, to me is one of those "hmm, maybe I will finally go check out this film," kind of nominees that happen every once in a while (such as Jacki Weaver last year for Animal Kingdom). That being said, he hasn't the momentum or the mentioned release time to truly mount an upset, so the nomination is the reward.

George Clooney The Descendants
This is arguably one of my favorite George Clooney performances. Not only do we see him be the George Clooney we all know and love, we also see his emotional side as a father trying to handle family and business all during a tragic accident. He was long since to be considered your winner, but I am not so convinced now. Lately, there has been a shift in momentum towards a new sheriff in town. I think Mr. Clooney will fall just short of...

Jean Dujardin The Artist
I knew this nomination was coming from a mile away, but I never considered him the frontiersmen. Then I started thinking about it and it actually makes the most sense. Being in a silent film, he must be able to act out each and every scene with only his body movements not his voice, which is hard to do. Granted, it throws subtlety out the window, but after seeing Mr. Dujardin on the awards circuit, there isn't a single bit of subtlety in his bones, and that's actually a compliment. He is a very charismatic man, he is in a Best Picture front-runner, and in a way he does the most acting than all the others combined (and they have the luxury of verbal conversations). I think Dujardin will squeak out a win here, and deservedly so (I mean since Fassbender is out).

Brad Pitt Moneyball
Now, I am really happy for this nomination, and I was hoping he would get more love than he did. Many were playing this category (and to a lesser extent the Adapted Screenplay category) as a Pitt vs Clooney battle. I was pulling for Mr. Pitt because while his is the most subtle of the two but also the most impactful, in my opinion, on the scene at had (Clooney was already surrounded by the emotional context of the scene). Pitt worked the dialogue with intelligence and humor, allowing us to better understand the logic of the game as well as Mr. Billy Beane. I only wish he had gained more momentum to win, because the man deserves to very much. That being said, I think he has been stuck in the #3 spot right now, but hey I'm pulling for you man (and this is coming from a devout Cardinals fan).

Gary Oldman Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Now, if you want to talk about subtle performances, look no further than Mr. Oldman's performance. I personally felt his performance, as well as the film, was too subtle for their own good and the plot kind of got a little muddled because of it. Also, this being his first nomination, you can't help but wonder if the nomination is to say, "See, we have nominated the guy," because he has often been snubbed of an Oscar nomination. That being said, he has no chance of winning, he's not carrying a Best Picture nominee, he's had little award's season love and his performance isn't really much of a standout. The nomination is the reward.

And this was about as restrained as I can be in terms of holding back my hatred of the Academy for snubbing Mr. Fassbender, now if you'll excuse me, I am going to go and blow off some.... steam....

Winner: Jean Dujardin The Artist
Runner-Up: George Clooney The Descendants


Should Win: Brad Pitt Moneyball (but Jean Dujardin would be runner-up in this category)
Should've been Nominated: Michael Fassbender Shame