Oscar-nomics: Overall Thoughts

Well, that was interesting. the 84th Academy Awards have come and gone and even though I didn't do so hot (I got 13 right, in my predictions), I take solace in the fact that of the one's I got wrong were my runner-ups (save for Documentary, Costume and Film Editing). I had a feeling Hugo was going to ride some love into winning the Sound and possibly Cinematography categories, but Visual Effects really surprised me. I mean, when a Best Picture nominee is in the category, history favors it, but I felt that Rise of the Planet of the Apes had it locked up for sure. Shows what I know. While I was off in Film Editing, I can't say I am no more than thrilled with Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for their great work on The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (arguably my second favorite of the year). As I mentioned in Documentary, I wouldn't be surprised if I was dead wrong, which I was, unfortunately. I do feel great, though, that I was able to guess 2/3 of the Best Shorts (and the third one was my alternate!). All in all, while I was happy with some of the surprises, I was pointing in the right direction for if I was wrong. Though I did make a joke to my mom when Meryl Streep won, saying, "I think the Academy is out to prove how wrong I was." Not to say she wasn't deserving, of course, but with the pro Davis campaign, well, you know what I mean...
The ceremony itself was quite fun, one of the better ones since the 81st and a hand full of others before that that I can remember. The presenters were fun, particularly the antics of Robert Downey Jr. as well as Emma Stone, whose co-presenters in both categories (Gwenyth Paltrow with the former Ben Stiller the latter), balanced each other nicely. Mr. Crystal was, as expected, top notch. While he was a little more safe than some would have wanted, I thought he did a great job considering the past two pairings. All in all, a nice evening, not the best. If I  would grade this one compared to previous ceremonies, I'd give it a B+. Thanks to all for reading my blogs, its been fun. Expect some more blogs when I get the chance, for now, have fun at the movies...

Biggest Surprise: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for Film Editing (Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)
                                  -While Mrs. Streep was a shock, I at least had her runner-up
Favorite Win: Bret McKenzie for Best Original Song (Man or Muppet The Muppets)
                                -Not my first choice from the film, but hey a win's a win
Favorite Speech: Christopher Plummer for Best Supporting Actor (Beginners)
                                -Though Asghar Farhadi was a close second for Best Foreign Film
Least Favorite Win: Robert Richardson for Best Cinematography (Hugo)
                                -Not because he isn't deserving, he is. My pride just swayed me to stick with Lubezki                                               for Tree of Life, could you blame me?

Oscar-nomics: Overall Predictions

Here is a quick overview of my picks, I am sticking to guns on most of the categories I was originally in question. I see Hugo being the big runner-up of the night. Personally, I am so close to picking it over War Horse for sound, but I just can't do it. Same with Costume, but again I think its deserving win for Art Direction will be good enough for the film. Now, if Hugo takes Visual Effects, which is highly possible mind you, then it good be a big night for Hugo in the tech and artistic categories. This could, in turn, make War Horse the biggest loser of the night, which is a possibility as well. Foreign Language film and Cinematography are also up for grabs. I am picking Monsieur Lazhar but hoping A Separation takes it, personally. Don't be surprised if In Darkness takes it either, remember the voters in this category are generally older and they love war films (but who doesn't, right?). I am changing Best Documentary Short (the only shorts category I didn't see) because other predictors are swaying me into a different direction. I am switching to Saving Face because it resembles many past winners in this categories. It could be Cherry Blossom or Incident in New Baghdad, we shall see. Other than that, I stick by my decisions. Here is just a quick look at my picks, with my runner-up to keep track that if I am wrong, at least I was close. Here are my picks:


Best Picture: The Artist
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius The Artist
        Runner-Up: Martin Scorcese Hugo


Best Actor: Jean Dujardin The Artist
        Runner-Up: George Clooney The Descendants


Best Actress: Viola Davis The Help
        Runner-Up: Meryl Streep The Iron Lady


Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer Beginners
        Runner-Up: Kenneth Brannagh My Week with Marylin


Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer The Help
        Runner-Up: Berenice Bejo The Artist


Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
        Runner-Up: The Artist


Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
        Runner-Up: Moneyball


Best Film Editing: The Artist
        Runner-Up: Moneyball


Best Animated Feature: Rango
        Runner-Up: A Cat in Paris


Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
        Runner-Up: Hell and Back Again


Best Foreign Film: Monsieur Lazhar
        Runner-Up/Should Win: A Separation


Best Original Score: The Artist
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Original Song: "Man or Muppet" The Muppets
        Runner-Up: "Real in Rio" Rio


Best Art Direction: Hugo
        Runner-Up: The Artist


Best Sound Mixing: War Horse
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Sound Editing: War Horse
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Documentary Short: Saving Face
        Runner-Up: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom


Best Live Action Short: Raju
        Runner-Up: The Shore


Best Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
        Runner-Up: Wild Life


Best Cinematography: The Tree of Life
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Costume Design: Jane Eyre
        Runner-Up: Hugo


Best Makeup: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows pt. 2
        Runner-Up: The Iron Lady


Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
        Runner-Up: Hugo


I haven't fully decided on whether or not I will blog during the show or if I will just post my thoughts afterwards. For now, have fun and enjoy the show everyone...

Oscar-nomics: Best Picture Predictions

VS

So, here we are, Best Picture. After two years of expanding then changing the category to possible expansion (depending upon number of votes), guessing the nominations have become a bit more tougher. That isn't to say there are films that are front-runners long before the announcement, but to guess the other possibles have now come to be a bit harder to figure out. That being said the list is both intriguing, and infuriating at the same time. Now, while there is a presumed front-runner, the fun part now, with the expanded list, is guessing what films would've made the top five, or for that matter what ranking did they make in the list. That being said, lets break down the sure fire contenders from the pretenders:


1. The Big Three: As with every year, there are three categories that unless you are, at the very least, nominated in each of these categories, your chances of winning are limited. Chalk it up to widespread love, as long as they have Screenplay, Directing and Editing nominations, they stand a shot. Many will say acting is important too, but not as much (though it doesn't hurt). With that in mind, lets look at the nominations and who survive to the next round:
The Artist: Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (Y) 
The Descendants Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (Y)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Directing (N), Writing (N), Editing (N)
The Help: Directing (N), Writing (N) Editing (N) 
Hugo: Directing (Y), Writing (Y) Editing (Y) 
Midnight in Paris: Directing (Y), Writing (Y), Editing (N) 
Moneyball: Directing (N), Writing (Y), Editing (Y) 
The Tree of Life: Directing (Y), Writing (N), Editing (N) 
War Horse: Directing (N), Writing (N), Editing (N)


All right, now that we have gone through the ranks, it seems The Artist, The Descendants and Hugo are the frontrunners, and though we already have a presumed winner, we go on to our next category:


2. Who fills out the list?: With three films already locks, what would've been #4 and #5 on the list? To me, the safe bet would be Moneyball, because despite lacking the Directing nomination, it received a lot more love many didn't think it had (it landed a sound nomination for crying our loud). I think the editing nomination is also a reason why I consider it a safer bet, can't be in the hunt without it. Could it pull an upset? Not a chance, at least compared to the top 3. Now the other spot? The easy answer would be Midnight in Paris, which landed 2/3 of the necessary nominations. Many would like to see The Help make the list, but I am not so sure. I was assuming it would at least land a Screenplay nomination. Even though the acting branch, which is where The Help received its other nominations, I don't think even they would be enough to make it. Extremely Loud came out of nowhere, but it only has one other nomination, so that is unlikely. Tree of Life probably would be polarizing enough that while it probably received its fair share of 1st place votes, it probably wouldn't rank any closer on other voter's list. War Horse was a presumed lock, but it lost much momentum as the season went on. The Best Picture nomination was going to happen under these rules, but if it were still 5? Not likely. Here is my thoughts on what would've made the top five (in alphabetical order):


-The Artist
-The Descendants
-Hugo
-Midnight in Paris
-Moneyball

Now, to the big question:

3. Who Wins?: While The Descendants received love with an editing nomination, it didn't receive any other technical nominations so I think the love is mostly skin deep. Now if we are talking about widespread love, look no further than the nomination leaders Hugo and The Artist. There are great claims as to why both should win, cause they really should. The only difference is Hugo got Sound nominations and The Artist received nominations (and likely at least one win) in acting. So, who gets the trophy? When in doubt, follow the guilds. The Artist can't be stopped, so I see Hugo as the night's big runner-up. That is, I am predicting it to win in some categories, it will probably rank second in all the other categories. This may prove to be vital in creating an upset, as the tech and artistic categories do have me flip flopping (except for score and art direction, I think those shall be split between the two). That being said, I see The Artist taking it, with Hugo close behind. So, with that I give you my power rankings:

Predicted Winner/Power Rankings:

1. The Artist

2. Hugo

3. The Descendants

4. Midnight in Paris

5. Moneyball

6. The Help

7. War Horse

8. The Tree of Life

9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

My Personal Choices/Power Rankings:

1. Hugo

2. The Tree of Life

3. Midnight in Paris

4. The Artist

5. Moneyball

6. The Descendants

7. The Help

8. War Horse

9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

(Note: I have yet to see the last two, I may have slipped War Horse ahead of The Help, but without having seen it, I can't make that call)

What Should Have Been Nominated (In no real order):

-Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

-Shame

-Contagion

-Beginners

Osar-nomics: Best Film Editing Predictions

This is one of my favorite categories, which is why I saved it for last (besides Best Picture). Not only is it integral to the whole process of film-making (what good is a film if its not put together properly), but it is also just as necessary in predicting the Best Picture. The last film to take Best Picture and not be nominated in this category was Ordinary People back in 1980. You also get some non-Best Picture nominees, but worthy candidates to show that not all of the Best Picture nominees were truly the year's best in this category (it also helps narrow down the list). We lost that the past years when they made a mandatory 10 Best Picture list, but this year with new rules, its great to see a non-Best Picture make it (even though I thought it would make the list). That being said, I like the list, even though my favorite, Contagion, was not nominated. That being said, lets take a look at the nominees:

The Artist Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
To be a Best Picture front-runner, you almost have to have a nomination in this category. I do think this is a worthy nomination, and likely win. The editing is seamless and it helps move the story along when music isn't there at its aide (the composer can only do so much). Whoever has won the ACE Eddie (Editing guild) has gone on to win this award. Though they have split the award between Comedy and Drama, if one of them were to win this year, it would be this one, since the other one was...

The Descendants Kevin Tent
Not to belittle his work, I just didn't find it all that impressive. I think this is a nominee that is a telling sign of the Academy's love for the film. I say this because not even Payne's Sideways made the cut a few years back.That being said, I don't think the editing is flashy enough to get the win. I think a win in this category means they really loved it, and I have serious doubts they loved it more than The Artist or Hugo.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
Now, this is a nomination I am extremely happy about. It is extremely difficult to make almost 3 hours of footage anything but long and tiresome, and the duo did it wonderfully. This also shows a level of respect for the duo, having scored their third nomination in a row (Curious Case of Benjamin Button and won for the Social Network). I think it any film should be able to upset, its this one, I am hoping for this one to win, but truth be told it might be in the 3rd spot overall. Mind you, its the kind of flashy editing that does well in this category. However, by not being a Best Picture nominee, its clearly at a disadvantage, and is clearly not as loved as The Artist and...

Hugo Thelma Schoonmaker
Talk about best Director-Editor in the business, she and Martin Scorcese have worked together for decades. She won for the Departed The Aviator and Raging Bull, so she is rather well respected in the editing community. Add in that her film is a beloved Best Picture nominee, whose film does have its flashy moments of editing. Whether its the hustle and bustle of the train station, the wondrous adventures in Paris, or the detail put in each scene of Mr. Scorcese's love of film-making and Goerges Melies. I'd put this as the most possible spoiler, because even though it is loved and flashy, I don't think its as loved as The Artist.

Moneyball Christopher Tellefsen
Another great choice, and possible player for the win. The smooth editing of each baseball game as well the whip smart dialogue (which is key for any Aaron Sorkin film) makes this a viable candidate. Add in the fact that its a Best Picture nominee, it stands a chance. That being said, I think it may be in the weakest spot (aside from Dragon Tattoo). The Academy's love for the film is clear with its 6 nominations, and its as flashy as Dragon Tattoo to be strongly considered a contender. However, I just see this film coming up short, probably ahead of Dragon Tattoo, maybe behind The Descendants out of sheer love for the former. I'm putting this one in the should win, because while I am backing Dragon Tattoo, I think of the two Moneyball is the safer bet of the two, but don't get me wrong these are two solid nominees I am talking about.

Winner: The Artist
Runner-Up: Hugo


Should Win: Moneyball
Should Have Been Nominated: Contagion


gee, I wonder what the next category will be???

Oscar-nomics: Best Actor Predictions

This is the category I take most umbrage with, and not because who is in it, the list is respectable, but who is not. I thought Michael Fassbender not only had the biggest breakout year by far but also the best performance in Shame. He threw himself into every scene he was given and gave each scene no less than his all, which he did flawlessly. I was worried he would be snubbed since he failed to land a SAG nomination, but I was hoping the Academy would overlook that mess up and let him in. Oh well, lets see who got in instead, here are the nominees:

Demián Bichir A Better Life
No offense to Mr. Bichir, this is a well earned nomination, but its his nomination I am most upset about. While I am sure his performance is strong, it had a very little release. This, to me is one of those "hmm, maybe I will finally go check out this film," kind of nominees that happen every once in a while (such as Jacki Weaver last year for Animal Kingdom). That being said, he hasn't the momentum or the mentioned release time to truly mount an upset, so the nomination is the reward.

George Clooney The Descendants
This is arguably one of my favorite George Clooney performances. Not only do we see him be the George Clooney we all know and love, we also see his emotional side as a father trying to handle family and business all during a tragic accident. He was long since to be considered your winner, but I am not so convinced now. Lately, there has been a shift in momentum towards a new sheriff in town. I think Mr. Clooney will fall just short of...

Jean Dujardin The Artist
I knew this nomination was coming from a mile away, but I never considered him the frontiersmen. Then I started thinking about it and it actually makes the most sense. Being in a silent film, he must be able to act out each and every scene with only his body movements not his voice, which is hard to do. Granted, it throws subtlety out the window, but after seeing Mr. Dujardin on the awards circuit, there isn't a single bit of subtlety in his bones, and that's actually a compliment. He is a very charismatic man, he is in a Best Picture front-runner, and in a way he does the most acting than all the others combined (and they have the luxury of verbal conversations). I think Dujardin will squeak out a win here, and deservedly so (I mean since Fassbender is out).

Brad Pitt Moneyball
Now, I am really happy for this nomination, and I was hoping he would get more love than he did. Many were playing this category (and to a lesser extent the Adapted Screenplay category) as a Pitt vs Clooney battle. I was pulling for Mr. Pitt because while his is the most subtle of the two but also the most impactful, in my opinion, on the scene at had (Clooney was already surrounded by the emotional context of the scene). Pitt worked the dialogue with intelligence and humor, allowing us to better understand the logic of the game as well as Mr. Billy Beane. I only wish he had gained more momentum to win, because the man deserves to very much. That being said, I think he has been stuck in the #3 spot right now, but hey I'm pulling for you man (and this is coming from a devout Cardinals fan).

Gary Oldman Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Now, if you want to talk about subtle performances, look no further than Mr. Oldman's performance. I personally felt his performance, as well as the film, was too subtle for their own good and the plot kind of got a little muddled because of it. Also, this being his first nomination, you can't help but wonder if the nomination is to say, "See, we have nominated the guy," because he has often been snubbed of an Oscar nomination. That being said, he has no chance of winning, he's not carrying a Best Picture nominee, he's had little award's season love and his performance isn't really much of a standout. The nomination is the reward.

And this was about as restrained as I can be in terms of holding back my hatred of the Academy for snubbing Mr. Fassbender, now if you'll excuse me, I am going to go and blow off some.... steam....

Winner: Jean Dujardin The Artist
Runner-Up: George Clooney The Descendants


Should Win: Brad Pitt Moneyball (but Jean Dujardin would be runner-up in this category)
Should've been Nominated: Michael Fassbender Shame

Oscar-nomics: Best Foreign Language Feature

Or

As was the case with Documentary, I have been unable to catch any of these cause they are generally in very limited release at this time. That being said, there is a rule towards voting in this category: In order for your vote to be considered, you must go to each of the Academy's screenings of the films to be able to vote. This narrows the field of voters to those who have time to do this, which generally means its the older members who are generally voting in this category. While there have been rules instated to avoid a rather rude snub of critically acclaimed films, foreign films that have won in this category have generally been safer films, so front-runner A Separation is actually in a weaker position than one might have originally thought. Even though it did receive a writing nomination, unless those writers see the other screenings then their votes are for naught. While I would predict this one in a heartbeat, I am placing it as my runner up so that if I am wrong, I'd be happy rather than guessing it, getting it wrong and be sad. That being said, here are the nominees:

Bullhead (Belgium): Michaël R. Roskam
Footnote (Israel):  Joseph Cedar
In Darkness (Poland): Agnieszka Holland
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada): Philippe Falardeau
A Separation (Iran): Asghar Farhadi

Generally, the more reserved, less out there films are the ones that get the gold, and from what I have seen of Bullhead, I don't think its right up the voter's alley, so I think it is a longshot. Footnote has a decent shot at winning, but tragicomedies, or comedies in general, don't often find much love here in terms of wins. That being said, with A Separation being my runner up, its between Monsieur Lazhar and In Darkness for the win, in my opinion. In Darkness, tells the tale of escaped Jewish men and women during the Nazi regime through the sewer systems in Poland. The other, Monsieur Lazhar, tells the story of a classroom in which a teacher, who happens to be an alien from Algeria, comes in and shakes up the educational system. The safe money would be on In Darkness, but I think the length (2 hours and 24 minutes), might hurt its chances. I am going out on a limb for Monsieur Lazhar, because I think its a rich story and personally I see it as the only one that could really take out A Separation. Again, I am convinced that A Separation has the Oscar almost locked, this is more of a devil's advocate in case my theory is true about the voters and their thoughts of such diverse and challenging films as A Separation. I will claim a half point if it does win, yet another category I am hoping my prediction is wrong, we shall see.

Winner: Monsieur Lazhar

Runner-Up: A Separation

Should Win: A Separation

Should Have Been Nominated: The Skin I Live In (on the basis that I was unable to truly catch any foreign films this year sadly)

Oscar-nomics: Best Director Predictions

Now, here is a list I am happy about. Not one of these men aren't deserving of a nomination, and more so each of them have a strong reason to win here. I am a little surprised they didn't put Spielberg in this list. I knew he wasn't going to win, but still. If it were a perfect world and all of my picks made it in, we would've seen some love for either Steven Soderbergh (Contagion) or Steve McQueen (Shame), but beggars can't be choosers, right? That being said, this one has been pretty obvious for sometime now. I was hoping for a little more competition from what I thought was the better of the two, but the DGA destroyed those hopes. Still, at least this year we have a deserving winner rather than a Best Picture tag-along (*cough*Hooper*cough*). Here are the nominees:

Woody Allen: Midnight in Paris
I am thrilled to see Mr. Allen here, because I was worried his film might not have the momentum to carry through to this nomination. His direction was brave by letting the dialogue and characters tell the story at hand with the Art Direction and Costume Designs act as secondary aide. He kept things moving along and always gave each scene the right amount of time to gets us caught up in them each and every time without feeling too long. That being said, he doesn't stand a chance, his direction is too subtle and the film isn't really in position to make an upset. That being said, I am sure Mr. Allen will be content with a Best Original Screenplay win, that is if he even bothers to show up (dare to dream folks).

Michel Hazanavicius: The Artist
Now, this is what I consider to be one of the films strengths. Hazanavicius' direction is flawless, he brings life to each scene which requires a little help when our two leads aren't front and center. He makes the film what it is, bringing each scene to life with little more than the right scene decorations and cues to the actors. Hazanavicius is going to win this, and deservedly so (he may be my second favorite of the list). He won the Directors Guild and the film is poised to win Best Picture. It would be foolish to bet against this man when it comes to the win come Sunday.

Terrence Malick: The Tree of Life
First off: WOO!!! If you thought seeing Woody Allen making the list was thrilling, this made me ecstatic. I thought The Tree of Life was dead in the water, it was gaining no momentum at all in the awards circuit. And that was a shame, because Malick's direction is flawless and is not only deserving of a nomination, but also a win. Balancing the effects of the creation of time as well as the story of an urban family balancing such ideas with creationism is no easy feet. That being said, he is probably dead last in the rankings cause as I said earlier, he has gained little to no momentum towards an upset. The nomination is the reward here.

Alexander Payne: The Descendants
This, in my opinion, might be the weak link in the list. Not to diminish Payne's direction, its stellar work. I just didn't think it was truly a standout for the film. He definitely worked the cinematography to make Hawaii annoyingly beautiful, as well as extract the right amount of weight from each and every scene. Balancing tragedy and comedy is hard to do, but I would chalk that up to the screenplay than his direction (which he will probably win anyway). That being said, he won't win, I chalk this nomination towards love of the film as a whole and the love will probably work towards its Screenplay win, but no further.

Martin Scorcese: Hugo
This is hands down my favorite nominee, and the one I am pulling for the most to win. If there was one thing I loved most about Hugo, it was its direction, which I found to be flawless. Balancing each story-line, giving us a sense of wonder beyond the amazing visual as well as giving each scene its life and love, the direction is amazing. This is truly Scorsese's love letter to movies, and its arguably one of his best jobs as a director since Goodfellas, maybe even Raging Bull. He won the Golden Globe so there is a reason to suspect he could upset, and the 11 nominations clearly shows love for the film. If there is going to be an upset, its going to be Scorcese winning, and maybe a big night for Hugo all together (I am already reconsidering some of my earlier predictions).

That being said, I am sticking with the DGA and sticking with Hazanavicius. But hey, congratulations to everyone in this list. Great nominees all around...

Winner: Michel Hazanavicius The Artist
Runner-Up: Martin Scorcese Hugo


Should Win: Martin Scorcese Hugo
Should've Been Nominated: Steve McQueen Shame 

Oscar-nomics: Best Documentary Feature Predictions

Okay, so there is a problem that happens every year with both this category and the Foreign Language category. The films that are generally nominated very rarely make it to me in time in order to see it. That, or I miss it because they rarely get enough publicity early on that I don't hear about them until after the fact. That being said, the guild awards are generally my go-to in predicting a winner (Last years champ, Inside Job, was the only one to at least get nominated in each category). This year, however, that isn't the best prognosticator since few of these films got much guild love. I thought, for sure, Project Nim and Bill Cunningham (the only documentary I had seen of the shortlist) were locks, but alas, they are not. So, with the presumed one's out and very little guild love amongst the list, which one takes the prize? Honestly, I feel less sure about this than the Shorts. That being said, here are the nominees:
  
Hell and Back Again – Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner 
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front – Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman 
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory – Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky 
Pina – Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel 
Undefeated – TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay, and Richard Middlemas

Another awards prognosticator, Awards Nazi, named Hell and Back Again his favorite, and war documentaries have always had love in terms of nominations (Taxi to the Darkside won a few years back). That being said, I am doubtful for it to win, but I won't be surprised if it does. Undefeated is a rather inspirational movie, which have also had quite a bit of love in this category. While there is a plausibility this will take it, I don't think this will take it. Now, If a Tree Falls is an interesting case. Its an environmental film and stands its fair chances at winning, but I'm not predicting it. Again, though, I won't be surprised if I am wrong.I am feeling that it may be between Pina and Paradise Lost, though this is simply based on the fact that they at least got some love from the guilds (directing for Paradise Lost and Pina for Writing). If a Tree Falls also got a writing nom, but for some reason I have a feeling its between Pina and Paradise Lost because they are the two that I feel were the most talked about of the bunch and seemed to be "in the mix" for awhile now. I am predicting Paradise Lost because of the timely matter of the documentary, but I am also a fan of Wim Wenders, so if Pina wins, I won't be upset. Then again, I won't be upset if I am wrong, seeing as how I am not 100% on this one. We shall see, I guess...

Winner: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Runner-Up: Pina

Should Win: Hell and Back Again (because Awards Nazi liked it)
Should've been Nominated: Project Nim (mostly because I thought it had wide spread love amongst the guilds)

Oscar-nomics: Best Adapted Screenplay Nominations

 VS

Okay, I was waiting a while to predict this because, truth be told, I haven't seen the front runner in this category yet (at least the presumed frontrunner). That being said, it is a respectable list, don't have any major problems with this list. Honestly, most of the films I have seen are Original, so I was more bias when writing that one. Needless to say, like Original, we are in a position where we have some welcomed nominees, but in the end, only two here are on the radar for a win. Here are the nominees:

The Descendants: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash from The Descendants by Kaui Hart Hemmings

For awhile now, this film has been hailed as the one to beat and that so far stays true. Its an emotional film with many well written characters with a good sense of humor that doesn't belittle everything going on. Payne had previously won for the wonderful Sideways so while there has been a long standing thing lately of spreading the wealth, I think he's the safe money to win, especially since there is a good chance this film may get shut out in a few other categories. Still, I am reserved to say this in fact will win, even though I am predicting so. There is one other film that stands a chance at dethroning it.

Hugo: John Logan from The Invention of Hugo Cabret by Brian Selznick

While I loved the film, there were some problems with the script which make me feel like this is one of the weak links in the category. If there was one thing the film could've done better, it would've been to make the script a little more subtle than it was. It felt like too much was given to us rather than simply allowing us to explore the film on a deeper level. While I do see Hugo having a strong night in the technical categories, I'm afraid all the love for the film (which I suspect got it here) can't bring it a win here (if so, than ladies and gentlemen, I give you your Best Picture, this is how sure I am it won't win here).
  
The Ides of March: George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Beau Willimon from Farragut North by Beau Willimon

Honestly, I am not terribly surprised this made it in, since there was a late in the game boom going for it. It is also a taut, suspenful political drama filled with many great performances. I thought it kind of got bogged down with a melodramatic love triangle, but it didn't completely destroy the film for me. That being said, being the films only nominee, I think the nomination is the reward and it just doesn't have enough love to carry on to the win.
  
Moneyball: Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin; Story by Stan Chervin from Moneyball by Michael Lewis

 Now, if you want to talk about a film that might have enough love to gain a win, than Moneyball could be an upset in the making, and for good reasons. It took a book many couldn't translate well into a smart, funny and inspirational movie. Bolstered by great performances, this is a very well made movie. I have a sneaking suspicion that this film may end up winning here for several reasons. For starters, it received more nominations than the Descendants which shows broader love (though the Descendants did gain a directing nom) and it took material no one thought could be made into a film and made a fantastic one at that. Granted, its Aaron Sorkin, the guy who made a film about Facebook. Granted, this would be back to back wins for the man, as well as Zaillian's second after Schindler's List, but lets be honest, would you complain if these two won again? Here's hoping...

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan from Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy by John le Carré

Personally, I had some problems with how this film played out, mostly since I found it a little hard to follow at times. That being said, I enjoyed it for the Thriller/Espionage film that it is and the nomination is surely a welcomed one. That being said, though, it stands no chance. Its not a Best Picture nominee and it hasn't quite had the run to merit an upset status. Still, congrats for them, the nomination is certainly the reward here.

Winner: The Descendants
Runner-Up: Moneyball

Should Win: Moneyball
Should've been Nominated: Girl with the Dragon Tattoo 

Oscar-nomics: Best Cinematography Predictions

Not going to lie, this is a nice list. My thoughts on snubs in this category are minimal in that I knew they didn't stand a chance (Sorry Shame). That being said, each of these films stand a very reasonable chance at winning. There is a clear frontrunner, but there is a looming feeling that an upset can happen in this category. If it were to happen, who takes it? Honestly, it is a rather stacked list, probably the most stacked of the other categories. Without Further adieu, here are our nominees, with my favorite shot to boot:

The Artist: Guillaume Schiffman
Black and White designed films often struggle to win here, but do generally get in for basic love of said design. However, when they are Best Picture nominees, such as Schindler's List, there a lock. There is definitely is a plausible chance this film will win here, there is definitely a love for the film and this win can be caught up in said love. That being said, however, I don't think it draws enough attention to itself than our other nominees to assure a win, but I'd keep an eye out for this one.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: Jeff Cronenweth
This is definitely one of my favorite nominations, and certainly is also deserving of the win. The cinematography definitely adds to the visual eeriness of the films subject matter and is certainly its own entity in the film. We get just the right amount of landscape shots that we get immersed in the scenes we are witnessing on the big screen. Personally, if there was any category I would give the film its win, it would be for this category. That being said, I doubt its chances against the other nominees, in another I'd see no problems with this taking it.

Hugo: Robert Richardson

Now if we want to talk about some pretty cinematography, look no further than Mr. Richardson's lovely work. He makes sure to fully engross us with every scene, to help further Scorcese's 3D ambitions, and he never skips a beat. Personally, I would have this as a runner-up (in terms of winning this year), but I wonder. There is word that the presumed frontrunner might come up short, and that the Academy might be looking for something different. While I am not predicting this to win, I am going to be on record that if there is to be a surprise win, its going to be this one. It might be my personal vendetta to ruin my prediction sheet by not picking this, but I am sticking to my guns with...

Tree of Life: Emmanuel Lubezki

When the trailer was released, there was already talk of this film being the one to beat. Since its release, if there is one thing this film has been praised almost universally about, its for the film's cinematography, and for good reason. It is a beautifully shot film and is executed perfectly. I was worried that this would be the films only nomination, since the film as a whole wasn't as universally loved. However, the film did gain a Best Picture nomination, so there is love for it. Also, this film is on a hotter than hot streak when it comes to awards season. I am worried however, because Mr. Lubezki's previous work, the wonderful Children of Men, wasn't able to translate such a hot streak into Oscar gold, but it didn't carry a Best Picture nomination. Mr. Lubezki is one of the best of the business and is certainly deserving of the award. I am staying behind this film, and thus ladies and gentlemen, I give you my predicted winner, here is hoping I'm right.

oooh, ahhh...

War Horse: Janusz Kamiński

When it comes to Oscar love, is hard not to think of Janusz Kamiński. His work on Saving Private Ryan was very strong, gritty work. Here in War Horse, he tries to replicate the same kind of work. While it doesn't quite match up, you do realize his ability to work what I call the "OOOH, AAAAH" angle of every shot he works on. I think this film definitely stands a chance because if there is one thing Academy members like, its going "OOOH, AAAH." I don't think it will win, but still, you never know...

Winner: Tree of Life
Runner-Up: Hugo

Should Win: Tree of Life
Should've been Nominated: Shame

Oscar-nomics: Best Short Film Predictions

Ok, so this is a rather tricky one, which is kind of why I am doing all three at once. Like many of the categories, unless you are part of the branch of the specific field in the Academy (such as acting, directing, etc.), you get a vote in said category. This is why the guild awards generally play true to the Oscars because many are one in the same in terms of voting branches. This makes it even harder for the short films because a very small number of people watch the films and vote. As a result, these categories are, at best, a crap shoot. To at least have some kind of educated guess, I went and saw the Live Action and Animated Shorts (they weren't showing Documentary, although I doubt even that would've given me the edge in predicting them). That being said, I have my favorites and I am going with those, but I do think the Animated branch will probably go a different route (I have already prepared myself for a night of sorrow, as you might have already noticed in past prediction blogs). Here are the nominees, and I will start with Documentary because if your going to do wild guesses, why not start with the one you are least prepared to predict, right? :

Best Documentary Short Feature 
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement – Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin 
God Is the Bigger Elvis – Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson 
Incident in New Baghdad – James Spione 
Saving Face – Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy 
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom – Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen

Thoughts: Again, the one category I was unable to see so a shot in the dark for this one (I tagged the films to avoid making this too long since I am doing all three). I have noticed, though, I trend in uplifting Documentaries taking the award the past couple of years. Each of these Documentaries have some form of that, so an obvious pick to me is hard. I'd pick between The Barber of Birmingham or Incident in New Baghdad, but I can also see The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom taking it, tough decisions. Watch it be that I am wrong and none of those three are picked (Saving Face is also justifiable). I am going with The Barber of Birmingham because I think it is a tale that is the kind of story the Academy would like to reward. I am wary about The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom, so that will be my runner-up.

Winner: The Barber of Birmingham
Runner-Up: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Best Animated Short
Dimanche – Patrick Doyon 
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore – William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg 
La Luna – Enrico Casarosa 
A Morning Stroll – Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe 
Wild Life – Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

Thoughts: This is the one category I feel fairly sure about, at least more sure in comparison to the others. I can see Dimanche and Wild Life winning for their very artistic animation, Wild Life in particular (though between the two, I'd pick Dimanche). Still, I am going for The Fantastic Flying Books because I think it has the best story of the bunch and the animation is rather strong. It was my favorite of the lot, so I am pulling for it to win. I wouldn't be surprised if I am wrong, but I will be stern with this one and stick with those wonderful flying books.

Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Runner-Up: Wild Life (I would say Dimanche or even the audacious Morning Stroll, but I think Wild Life's animation was more creative)

Best Live Action Short 
Pentecost – Peter McDonald and Eimear O'Kane 
Raju – Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren 
The Shore – Terry George and Oorlagh George 
Time Freak – Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey 
Tuba Atlantic – Hallvar Witzø

Thoughts: Pentecost is certainly up there for balancing Christianity with a child's love for the sport of futbol (and for none-other than my beloved Liverpool FC). Time Freak was a bit out there, though I enjoyed the story. The Shore is a plausible choice for its mixture of comedy a drama when it came to a man's past in his home of Northern Ireland, during the many troubles the country faced. I don't think Tuba Atlantic will take it (which means we probably have our winner folks) cause it was probably the most out there in terms of story telling (Time Freak was rather clever with their story telling). I am going with Raju because for a short film, it felt complete and thought provoking at the same time. To fit what they did in just 25 minutes was amazing. The Shore also felt like a complete story, but Raju brought some tough topics to the table. I'd say if any are going to win, its those two, but I am going with Raju for the win. Time Freak may win for its rather clever and inventive story, but I still feel Raju and The Shore were more complete.

Winner: Raju
Runner-Up: The Shore

I would like to point out that if my runner-up wins, I consider that a half point towards my win-lose ratio (at least for these categories where guessing is a best as it gets...

Oscar-nomics: Best Actress Predictions

Not going to lie, this is a nice batch of lovely ladies this year. Its mixed with the "saw coming from a mile away" nominees to the "good for her" nominees to the "Sweet, SHE MADE IT!!!" nominees. This maybe me balancing out my frustration of the Best Actor Race, but I am pretty ok with this list. I would've liked to see them take a chance with say Tilda Swinton, but a surprise nominee in this category made me overlook it, mostly since I have yet to see her movie (though the trailers are rather haunting in my opinion). That being said, while there has been talk of this being a highly competitive category, I think the winner was solidified at SAG's. Here are the nominees:

 
Glenn Close: Albert Nobbs
I chalk this one under "saw coming from a mile away" nominations, but its still a "good for her" nomination nontheless. Mrs. Close takes on the role of a transgender female so effortlessly, which might be chalked up to this being her dream project for quite some time. However, the film wasn't very well liked and her chances are slim based on the lack of awards support. She could gain some overdue love, but many are playing that up more so for Meryl Streep, which is kind of annoying when you think about it (Meryl Streep: 2 gold statues, Glenn Close: 0!?!?!). Sad to see her go 0-6, but I am still hopeful she will win one day.

Viola Davis: The Help
While many, including myself, saw this coming, I am still very happy for it because she was my favorite part. of the film. As a maid and, in reality, a second mom to a upper-class white family back in the times of racist segregation, Mrs. Davis gives the role, as well as the film, a heart and a sense of direction. She is very powerful in the role as Aibileen and slowly but surely finds the power within her to rise up against the segregation. While I thought the role to be a bit more on the supporting side, I have no problems calling this lady as your winner. Her role is very showy, the movie practically revolves around her, and she has been really passionate with her speeches and humility around the awards circuit, she's the perfect candidate in my opinion. The fact that she, as well as the win, won the SAG awards further points to a big, deserving, win for her.

Rooney Mara: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
This might of came at the expense of Tilda Swinton, but I am ok with that because this is my "Sweet, SHE MADE IT!!!" nomination. Its a role that one must truly commit to in all facets of the character, and she never skips a beat. Many will have qualms when comparing this to the original film, but if you read the book, Lisbeth is the pure image of Stieg Larsson's masterpiece (not saying Noomi Rapace's work was weaker by any means). It is too bad she, like Mrs. Close, didn't gain much awards momentum, because I could see Ms. Mara being an excellent competition. Sadly, the nomination is the reward, but on the plus side.... THE NOMINATION IS THE REWARD!!!

Meryl Streep: The Iron Lady
Raise your hand if you didn't see this one coming? Mrs. Streep can read the phonebook and get a nomination, she's just that darn good, and the Iron Lady is no exception. Many thought she could take down Mrs. Davis because of her Golden Globe win, but lets be honest, the Globes love Mrs. Streep. The fact is, her film wasn't that great, she is the reason why many people gave it a pass, and I think that hurts her more than helps her (Davis' film is a Best Picture nominee). I think as great a Streep's performances are and probably will be for years to come, she will be the bridesmaid and not the bride for many more excellent leading ladies (although I was upset Sandra Bullock took it from her when I felt Carey Mulligan should've).

Michelle Williams: My Week with Marylin
Another no-brainer nominee, but still a welcomed one. Ms. Williams throws herself into the role as Marylin Monroe, not simply a mimic but a transformation. In another year, I could see her taking this one, but I don't see that happening. Her film, while liked, wasn't as loved as our previous nominees and has done so so with audiences as well. I think Michelle Williams will one day receive the Oscar, but for now the nomination is the reward so I am happy for her, and I am sure the great Marylin Monroe would be as well.

Will Win: Viola Davis The Help
Runner-Up: Meryl Streep The Iron Lady

Should Win: Viola Davis The Help or Rooney Mara The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (I'm not picky)
Should've Been Nominated: Tilda Swinton We Need to Talk About Kevin